📈 Economy · Next Week

US Initial Jobless Claims (Week Ending July 12, 2026, Release July 17, 2026): Below 225,000

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 17. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

US initial jobless claims have stabilized in the 210,000–228,000 range in Q2 2026, with the four-week average near ~217,000–220,000. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress July 14–15 and has signaled continued labor market resilience. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found; Bloomberg/Dow Jones consensus estimate is ~218,000, well below the 225,000 threshold. Main upside risk: seasonal adjustment catch-up after the July 4 holiday week, historically staying below 230,000.

Data basis for this prediction

Trading Economics – US Initial Jobless Claims historical data (13.07.2026)
Federal Reserve Board – Fed Speaker Calendar: Warsh Congressional testimony 14.–15.07.2026
CNBC – Kalshi/Labor market indicators overview (09.07.2026)
Bloomberg/Dow Jones Konsensschätzung Jobless Claims Woche 12.07.2026: ~218.000

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Gleiche DOL-Veröffentlichung: 208.000 Erstanträge – deutlich unter 225.000. Quelle: Bloomberg 'US Jobless Claims Decline to 208,000, Below Forecasts' (16. Juli 2026).

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