Bank of England holds the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at the November 5, 2026 MPC meeting (confirmed by BoE press release or Reuters by November 5, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The BoE MPC voted 6-3 on September 17, 2026 to hold at 3.75%, with three dissenters preferring a 25 bps hike. The next MPC meeting is November 5, 2026 — immediately following the UK Autumn Budget on October 28 (Chancellor John Healey). Polymarket prices no change in November at 100% (volume: $390,454). This extreme conviction reflects broad consensus that the new fiscal picture and elevated UK inflation send hawkish signals but are insufficient to trigger a formal rate move at this meeting. Marginal discount from the 100% market anchor reflects structural prudence: a surprise move cannot be ruled out entirely.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für keine Änderung bei BoE-Novembersitzung (Volumen: 390.454 USD, Stand: 27.09.2026, polymarket.com)
- Bank of England MPC-Entscheid 17. September 2026: Leitzins 3,75%, Abstimmung 6:3 gegen Zinserhöhung (bankofengland.co.uk)
- Nächste MPC-Sitzung: 5. November 2026, 12:00 Uhr London-Zeit (financecalendar.com, econ-calendar.com)
- UK Autumn Budget: 28. Oktober 2026, Chancellor John Healey (charles-stanley.co.uk, pwc.co.uk)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] BoE beliess den Leitzins NICHT bei 3,75 % — sie erhöhte ihn auf 4,00 % am 5. November 2026 (Quelle: Bloomberg)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
September 2026 PPI surprised massively at +1.3% MoM (consensus: +0.6%) — a 2× factor. October consensus is +0.4% MoM; the YoY rate is expected to mark the 'biggest yearly rise since 2022' (stocktitan.net). Gold is already under pressure at ~$3,969 as the market prices in steeper Fed rate hike bets for December 2026 (fxleaders.com). Given the persistent PPI upside surprise streak and a robust producer price environment, the probability of another consensus beat is ~57%. No direct Polymarket anchor available for this event.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
No direct market price available; historical beat rate and company guidance provide strong signal: TJX has beaten EPS consensus in each of the last 12 consecutive quarters (100% beat rate, avg. beat margin +5.8%). Most recently Q2 FY2027: reported $1.22 vs. $1.19 expected. Company's own Q3 guidance is $1.36–$1.38, both above the Street consensus of $1.34. The off-price segment benefits structurally from trading-down dynamics in an inflationary consumer environment.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Deere & Company reports Q4 FY2026 results (August–October 2026) on November 25, 2026 after market close. EPS consensus: $4.03/share (FY2026 full-year estimate: $18.11; Q4 FY2025 comparison EPS: $3.93). Deere has beaten EPS expectations in 11 of the last 13 quarters (84.6% beat rate). The consensus is only +2.5% above the prior-year quarter, favoring a beat at normal outperformance rates. The company benefits from strong precision agriculture demand, service/parts pricing power, and structural farm productivity demand. No Polymarket market; probability estimated at 65% based on historical 84.6% beat rate, discounted for ag-cycle uncertainty.