Bank of England holds its base rate unchanged at 3.75% on 30 July 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 30. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Current market pricing: ~60% probability of hold at 3.75%, with ~40% of traders pricing in at least one hike. UK inflation remains above 2.5% YoY per existing Cassandra open prediction (June 2026), keeping the BoE under inflation pressure. At the same time, the labour market is softening slightly, arguing against an immediate hike. The BoE is likely to wait for additional Q3 data before acting. No direct Polymarket anchor; own estimate based on OIS forward market data.
Data basis for this prediction
- Bank of England Leitzins: 3,75%, nächste MPC-Entscheidung 30. Juli 2026 (hoa.org.uk/news, Stand 16.07.2026)
- Markt-Pricing BoE Juli 2026: ~60% Halten, ~40% Erhöhung (OIS-Terminmarktdaten, Stand 16.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Money markets as of July 15, 2026 price a 2.70% ECB deposit rate by December 2026 — implying two more 25bp hikes: September to 2.50%, then October or December to 2.75%. Market commentators describe the September hike as 'fully priced in.' The 10Y Bund yield at 3.09% (July 15) reflects these expectations. Drivers: Eurozone inflation at 2.8% (June) remains above the ECB's 2% target, upside energy price pressure from the ongoing Hormuz crisis (elevated TTF gas), and still-robust eurozone wage growth. The ECB has roughly seven weeks after July 23 to digest data before acting in September.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Alphabet reports after market close on July 22, 2026. Analyst consensus stands at $2.86 adjusted EPS (+23.8% YoY) with total revenue of ~$116.53B. Alphabet has beaten the EPS consensus in seven consecutive quarters — most recently in Q1 2026 by a wide margin ($5.11 actual vs. $2.64 estimate). Google Cloud grew 63% YoY to $20.0B in Q1 2026 (fastest among hyperscalers). The ongoing AI investment cycle (Gemini 2.5, TPUv6, Workspace AI) and Search monetisation gains support margins. No direct Polymarket market found; 7-quarter beat streak implies a >80% hit rate.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The ECB Governing Council meets July 22–23, 2026. Polymarket and Kalshi each assign 88–90% probability to 'no rate change.' The ECB had just raised rates by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026. Eurozone inflation stood at 2.8% in June, near the target but above it. Money markets price two further hikes to 2.75% by December 2026, with the September meeting as the next live decision. The 10Y Bund yield at 3.09% (July 15) reflects this hawkish outlook — a July pause is fully priced in.