📈 Economy · Next Week

ECB leaves its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on 23 July 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. July 2026 · Predicted for 23. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

88%

The ECB Governing Council meets July 22–23, 2026. Polymarket and Kalshi each assign 88–90% probability to 'no rate change.' The ECB had just raised rates by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11, 2026. Eurozone inflation stood at 2.8% in June, near the target but above it. Money markets price two further hikes to 2.75% by December 2026, with the September meeting as the next live decision. The 10Y Bund yield at 3.09% (July 15) reflects this hawkish outlook — a July pause is fully priced in.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: EZB Juli 2026 – kein Zinsschritt 88 %; Kalshi: 90 % (Stand 17. Juli 2026)
EZB-Einlagensatz seit 11. Juni 2026: 2,25 % (+25 BP) (ECB Pressemitteilung ecb.mp260611)
10-J.-Bund-Rendite: 3,09–3,10 % am 15. Juli 2026; Geldmärkte preisen 2,70 % bis Dez. 2026 (TradingEconomics, 15. Juli 2026)
Eurozone HVPI Juni 2026: 2,8 % YoY (Eurostat, 17. Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB belässt Einlagensatz am 23. Juli 2026 bei 2,25% – Entscheidung um 13:45 Uhr MEZ bestätigt. Quelle: financecalendar.com, mezha.net

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