🏛️ Politics · Next Month

AfD wins more than 40.0% of votes cast in the Saxony-Anhalt state election (6 September 2026), confirmed by the state returning officer (Landeswahlleiter)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 22. August 2026 · Predicted for 6. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

The latest available poll (Pollytix/Campact, 12 August 2026) shows AfD in Saxony-Anhalt at 43%; Infratest dimap (30 July 2026) confirms similar figures. The 40% threshold is 3 percentage points below current polling — an error of this magnitude favoring other parties would be historically unprecedented in Saxony-Anhalt. Eastern German polls tend to underestimate the AfD (reverse Bradley effect). CDU sits at 22%, Die Linke at 13%, SPD at 7% — no rival party approaches 40%. No prediction market explicitly prices this threshold; estimated probability: 72%.

Data basis for this prediction

Pollytix/Campact (12. Aug 2026): AfD 43 %, CDU 22 %, Die Linke 13 %, SPD 7 %, Grüne 5 %, BSW 4 %, FDP 2 %
Infratest dimap (30. Juli 2026): Bestätigt AfD-Dominanz in Sachsen-Anhalt (t-online.de)
wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm: Umfragetrend Sachsen-Anhalt (Stand Aug 2026)
dawum.de/Sachsen-Anhalt: Aggregierter Wahltrend — AfD klar vorne (Stand 22. Aug 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl am 6. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Berichten (ARD-Projektionen, ZDF, Al Jazeera, Euronews, NPR) ca. 43,8–44,5 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der Schwelle von 40,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Quellen: ZDFheute (https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-sachsen-anhalt-wahlergebnisse-cdu-afd-schulze-siegmund-100.html), Wikipedia DE (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Sachsen-Anhalt_2026), Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/6/far-right-afd-wins-vote-in-germanys-saxony-anhalt-state-exit-polls), Euronews (https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/06/german-far-right-afd-wins-by-a-landslide-in-saxony-anhalt-exit-polls).

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