AfD receives more than 33.0% of votes cast at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (Sep 20, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. August 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
INSA survey (Nordkurier, Aug 4–11, 2026, n=1,000): AfD MV at 36%. The 33% threshold is 3pp below the polling average and historically bold: at the 2021 MV state election the AfD received only 17.7%. The nationwide eastern Germany surge and the simultaneous Saxony-Anhalt prediction (~40% AfD) strongly support >33% in MV. Coalition arithmetic (AfD + CDU = 46% per INSA, but CDU rules out coalition with AfD) increases AfD protest-voter mobilization incentive. No Polymarket markets for MV party-specific results; calibration via INSA aggregate.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA/Nordkurier Umfrage MV (4.–11.08.2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 %, CDU 10 % (Stand 13.08.2026)
- LTW Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021: AfD 17,7 % (Landeswahlleiter MV, historisch)
- t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Umfrage – 'AfD 36 %, SPD zittert' (August 2026)
- ZDF Politbarometer Sachsen-Anhalt 28.08.2026: AfD 40 % (ostdeutscher Vergleichstrend)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.