🏛️ Politics · Next Month

AfD receives more than 33.0% of votes cast at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (Sep 20, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

80%

INSA survey (Nordkurier, Aug 4–11, 2026, n=1,000): AfD MV at 36%. The 33% threshold is 3pp below the polling average and historically bold: at the 2021 MV state election the AfD received only 17.7%. The nationwide eastern Germany surge and the simultaneous Saxony-Anhalt prediction (~40% AfD) strongly support >33% in MV. Coalition arithmetic (AfD + CDU = 46% per INSA, but CDU rules out coalition with AfD) increases AfD protest-voter mobilization incentive. No Polymarket markets for MV party-specific results; calibration via INSA aggregate.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA/Nordkurier Umfrage MV (4.–11.08.2026): AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 %, CDU 10 % (Stand 13.08.2026)
LTW Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2021: AfD 17,7 % (Landeswahlleiter MV, historisch)
t-online.de: MV-Wahl 2026 Umfrage – 'AfD 36 %, SPD zittert' (August 2026)
ZDF Politbarometer Sachsen-Anhalt 28.08.2026: AfD 40 % (ostdeutscher Vergleichstrend)

Verdict: Hit

Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut vorläufigem amtlichem Endergebnis (Landtag MV / bpb.de / Wikipedia) 38,2 % der abgegebenen Stimmen – damit klar über der Schwelle von 33,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat somit eindeutig ein. Die AfD wurde stärkste Kraft vor der SPD (35,5 %), während CDU (4,9 %) und FDP (1,0 %) an der 5-%-Hürde scheiterten. Quelle: landtag-mv.de, bpb.de, de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_2026

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