🏛️ Politics · Next Month

AfD achieves more than 33.0% of votes cast at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026) and becomes the strongest party in the state (confirmed by the state returning officer)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. August 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

76%

Latest INSA poll for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (August 13, 2026): AfD 36%, SPD 29%, Die Linke 11%, CDU 10%, Grüne 5%, BSW 4%, FDP 3%. The 33.0% threshold sits 3 percentage points below the poll average — a robust buffer by eastern German state election standards. This would be the first time in the state's history that the AfD overtakes the SPD, which has governed Mecklenburg-Vorpommern under Minister-President Schwesig since 2017. No direct Polymarket market found. Historical context: AfD achieved comparable results in Saxony (32.1%, 2024) and Thuringia (32.8%, 2024); MV polling at 36% sits structurally above this level. Risk: MV's historically strong SPD base (SPD 2021: 39.6%) could boost tactical SPD voting, pushing AfD below 33%.

Data basis for this prediction

INSA-Umfrage Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, 13.08.2026: AfD 36 %, SPD 29 %, Linke 11 %, CDU 10 %, Grüne 5 %, BSW 4 %, FDP 3 % (t-online.de/dawum.de)
dawum.de: MV Wahltrend Aug. 2026 — AfD konstant 34–36 % seit Mai 2026
Landeswahlleiter MV: Landtagswahl MV 2021 — SPD 39,6 %, AfD 17,7 % (amtl. Ergebnis; struktureller Vergleich)
Wikipedia: Landtagswahl Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026 (Wahltermin 20. September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist vollständig eingetreten. Die AfD erzielte bei der Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern am 20. September 2026 laut amtlichem Ergebnis 38,2 % der Stimmen – deutlich über der prognostizierten Schwelle von 33,0 % – und wurde mit 32 von 71 Mandaten stärkste Kraft im Landtag. Die SPD kam auf 35,5 %, Die Linke auf 6,5 %, die Grünen auf 5,7 %; CDU (4,9 %) und FDP (1,0 %) scheiterten an der Fünf-Prozent-Hürde. Quellen: bpb.de 'Landtagswahl in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 2026: AfD stärkste Kraft' (https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/hintergrund-aktuell/581565/), Wikipedia '2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Mecklenburg-Vorpommern_state_election), CNN (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/20/europe/berlin-mecklenburg-vorpommern-election-afd-intl).

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