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Berlin state election (Sept 20, 2026): CDU wins more than 19.0% of valid votes

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 16. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

61%

The PolitPro aggregate for Berlin shows CDU at 19.6% on September 16, 2026; INSA (September 7–14) gives 20%. Polymarket gives CDU a 27% chance of winning the most seats. The 19.0% threshold sits ~0.6 pp below the polling mean of ~19.8%; with typical Berlin polling errors of ±2–3 pp, the probability is approximately 61%. CDU and Die Linke are neck-and-neck in polls (~19.8% each), making the race tight, but CDU falling below 19% would require a meaningful negative polling miss.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Aggregat Berlin, Stand 16.09.2026: CDU 19,6 %, Die Linke 19,8 %, AfD 17,9 %, Grüne 16,1 %, SPD 12,9 %
INSA Berlin-Umfrage 07.–14.09.2026: CDU 20 %
Polymarket 'Berlin State Election Winner', Stand 16.09.2026: CDU 27 ¢, Die Linke 66 ¢ (Volumen: 3,85 Mio. USD)
Historischer Polling-Fehler Berlin-Wahlen: Median ±2,5 Pp (Infratest dimap Wahlnachberichte 2021–2023)

Verdict: Miss

Die CDU erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20.09.2026 laut mehreren übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, PolitPro, Al Jazeera, ZDF) exakt 18,8 % der Stimmen – und verfehlte damit die Schwelle von 19,0 % um 0,2 Prozentpunkte. Die Partei verlor zudem massiv gegenüber 2023 (−9,5 Pp), während Die Linke mit 25,7 % klar stärkste Kraft wurde. Die Umfragen überschätzten die CDU systematisch (Polling-Mittelwert ~19,8 %, tatsächlich 18,8 %).

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