Berlin State Election (Sept 20, 2026): Greens Receive More Than 14.0% of Votes
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Berlin Greens poll consistently at 15–16%: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Sept 11) 16%, Infratest dimap (Sept 10) 16%, INSA (Sept 4) 15%, Civey (Aug 31) 15%; dawum aggregate 15.6%. Polymarket assigns ~3% probability to the Greens winning outright — they hold their base as a stable fifth party in a tight five-way race. Falling below 14% would require a >1.6-point polling miss.
Data basis for this prediction
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen: Grüne 16% Berlin (11.09.2026)
- Infratest dimap: Grüne 16% Berlin (10.09.2026)
- INSA: Grüne 15% Berlin (04.09.2026)
- dawum.de Berlin Aggregat: 15,6% / Polymarket Berlin State Election (11.09.2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die Grünen erhielten bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20.09.2026 laut amtlichem Ergebnis 14,29% der Zweitstimmen (Quelle: wahlen-berlin.de, Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election). Damit wurde die Schwelle von 14,0% knapp, aber eindeutig überschritten. Das Ergebnis lag jedoch deutlich unter dem Umfragemittel von ~15–16%: Die Grünen verloren 4,1 Prozentpunkte gegenüber der Wahl 2023. Die Vorhersage gilt dennoch als erfüllt, da das einzige Kriterium >14,0% war.
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