Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 65.0% of eligible voters (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The political constellation in Berlin is historically unusual: Die Linke (~21%) and CDU (~20%) are neck-and-neck in polls, with AfD (~17–18%) fighting for 2nd. The three-way race for first place and high societal polarisation should strongly boost turnout. The 2023 re-run achieved 63.3%, the 2021 original 75.4%. With a tight race like 2026, exceeding 65% is highly plausible. Estimate: ~68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Dawum.de: Wahlumfragen Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026 – Linke 21,0 %, CDU 20,1 %, AfD 17,7 % (Aggregat, 11.09.2026)
- Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF: Berlin-Umfrage – Linke 23 %, CDU 21 %, AfD 17 % (11.09.2026)
- Landeswahlleiter Berlin: Historische Wahlbeteiligung 2021=75,4 %, 2023=63,3 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket sees 53% for Democrats (Senate control, as of September 7, 2026), Kalshi 47.5% (September 2026), Nate Silver/Silver Bulletin 56.6% (as of September 11, 2026). Calibrated anchor: ~52%. Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats. 23 Republican seats (Class 3, last elected 2020) are up for election. Key races: Maine (Collins, R, vulnerable), North Carolina (open seat), Ohio (special election, competitive), Alaska (Peltola, D). Midterm losses for the ruling party (Republicans/Trump), high inflation and Iran war costs strengthen Democratic momentum narrative. Defensive risks for Democrats: Georgia (Ossoff, narrow 2020 win) and Michigan (Peters retiring).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All current polls show Die Linke in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern clearly above the 8% mark: Infratest dimap (Sep 7–9): 9%; FG Wahlen/ZDF (Sep 7–10): 10%; INSA (Sep 1–8): 11%; Pollytix (Sep 8–9): 12%. No pollster places the party below 9%. Die Linke has a traditionally strong core electorate in MV, particularly in rural eastern areas. No Polymarket market available; poll consistency implies ~77% probability.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket (as of 12 Sep 2026, ~$149M volume) shows a dead heat: Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula da Silva each at ~49%. A first-round win requires >50% of all valid votes. With two candidates this evenly matched, a first-round knockout is statistically near-impossible; third-candidate votes further depress both below the threshold. Open forecasts (Lula >46%, Bolsonaro >26%) are consistent with this scenario. Estimate: ~88%.