🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 65.0% of eligible voters (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

68%

The political constellation in Berlin is historically unusual: Die Linke (~21%) and CDU (~20%) are neck-and-neck in polls, with AfD (~17–18%) fighting for 2nd. The three-way race for first place and high societal polarisation should strongly boost turnout. The 2023 re-run achieved 63.3%, the 2021 original 75.4%. With a tight race like 2026, exceeding 65% is highly plausible. Estimate: ~68%.

Data basis for this prediction

Dawum.de: Wahlumfragen Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026 – Linke 21,0 %, CDU 20,1 %, AfD 17,7 % (Aggregat, 11.09.2026)
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF: Berlin-Umfrage – Linke 23 %, CDU 21 %, AfD 17 % (11.09.2026)
Landeswahlleiter Berlin: Historische Wahlbeteiligung 2021=75,4 %, 2023=63,3 %

Verdict: Hit

Die Wahlbeteiligung bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 lag laut Landeswahlleiter und übereinstimmenden Quellen (wahlrecht.de, Wikipedia, statistiken-aktuell.de) bei 74,2 % – ein Rekordhoch für Berlin nach 1990 und deutlich über der Schwelle von 65,0 %. Bereits um 16 Uhr meldete der Landeswahlleiter Stephan Bröchler eine Zwischenbeteiligung von 58,2 % (Berlin.de, Pressemitteilung 20.09.2026), was auf die spätere hohe Endbeteiligung hindeutete. Ausschlaggebend war – wie in der Vorhersage antizipiert – der enge Dreikampf: Die Linke gewann mit 25,7 % vor CDU (18,8 %) und AfD (16,3 %), was die Mobilisierung stark antrieb. Die tatsächliche Beteiligung übertraf sogar die Schätzung von ~68 %. Quellen: https://www.wahlrecht.de/news/2026/abgeordnetenhauswahl-berlin-2026.html, https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/pressemitteilungen/2026/pressemitteilung.1716393.php

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