Berlin State Parliament Election (September 20, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 66.5% of eligible voters (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The 2023 Berlin re-run election achieved only 63.0% turnout; 2016 registered 66.9%. The 2021 figure of 75.7% was exceptional as it coincided with the Bundestagswahl. For 2026 — a standalone election — the relevant benchmarks are 2023 and 2016. Multiple parties (FDP, BSW) are fighting close to the 5% threshold, which historically drives additional voter mobilisation. A threshold of 66.5% implies a slight uptick vs 2016 and a clear rebound from 2023. No direct prediction market available. Own calibration: 58%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2023 (Wiederholungswahl): 63,0 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
- Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2021: 75,7 % — Sondereffekt Bundestagswahl (BPB, Wikipedia)
- Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2016: 66,9 % (Statistisches Amt Berlin-Brandenburg)
- Cassandra-Prognosen aktiv: FDP <5 % und BSW <5 % — beide innerhalb der Hürde (Mobilisierungseffekt)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All recent polls for the MV state election put the CDU at 6–7%: Infratest dimap (7–9 Sep): 7%, FG Wahlen (7–10 Sep): 7%, INSA (1–8 Sep): 7%. The 9.0% threshold sits well above the entire polling band, offering a ~2pp buffer. No outlier poll suggests a CDU result above 8%. Threshold is conservatively set to account for polling error.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The race is an unprecedented head-to-head duel: INSA (September 16, 2026) shows AfD at 37%, SPD at 35% — AfD ahead. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen/ZDF (Sept 14–17) shows SPD at 37%, AfD at 36% — SPD marginally ahead. In the weighted average, both are essentially tied, with slightly more recent data points favoring AfD. No Polymarket anchor available. This prediction is distinct from the open 'AfD >35%' prediction: AfD could become the strongest party even at 33–34% if SPD falls below. Counterargument: Minister-President Schwesig (SPD) has a strong incumbency bonus; SPD last-minute mobilization historically strong in MV.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
All four recent polls show Die Linke clearly above 19.5%: BerlinTrend infratest dimap (Sept 7–9): 21%, Forsa: 22%, PolitPro Election Trend: 20.6%, INSA (Sept 7–14): 20%. Die Linke is 0.6–2.5 percentage points above the threshold in all surveys. No Polymarket anchor available; calibration based on polling aggregate. Distinct from the existing 'strongest party (ahead of CDU)' prediction: even if CDU narrowly leads, the 19.5% threshold is likely exceeded. CDU is at 19.9–21% — a near tie that leaves both scenarios open.