🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Parliament Election (September 20, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 66.5% of eligible voters (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

58%

The 2023 Berlin re-run election achieved only 63.0% turnout; 2016 registered 66.9%. The 2021 figure of 75.7% was exceptional as it coincided with the Bundestagswahl. For 2026 — a standalone election — the relevant benchmarks are 2023 and 2016. Multiple parties (FDP, BSW) are fighting close to the 5% threshold, which historically drives additional voter mobilisation. A threshold of 66.5% implies a slight uptick vs 2016 and a clear rebound from 2023. No direct prediction market available. Own calibration: 58%.

Data basis for this prediction

Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2023 (Wiederholungswahl): 63,0 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)
Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2021: 75,7 % — Sondereffekt Bundestagswahl (BPB, Wikipedia)
Wahlbeteiligung Berlin 2016: 66,9 % (Statistisches Amt Berlin-Brandenburg)
Cassandra-Prognosen aktiv: FDP <5 % und BSW <5 % — beide innerhalb der Hürde (Mobilisierungseffekt)

Verdict: Hit

Die Wahlbeteiligung bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 lag laut offiziellen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de, Wikipedia, politpro.eu) bei 74,2 % – und damit deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 66,5 %. Die hohe Mobilisierung ist offenbar auf das überraschend starke Abschneiden der Linken (25,7 %) und eine polarisierte Wählerschaft zurückzuführen. Die Vorhersage ist klar eingetreten.

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