🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): SPD receives less than 14.0% of votes cast

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

72%

The latest PolitPro polling (September 17, 2026) shows Berlin SPD at only 12.1% — a dramatic collapse from 18.4% in the 2023 repeat election. The party ranks 6th behind Die Linke (20.6%), CDU (19.9%), AfD (17.8%), and Grüne (16.0%). SPD suffers from national coalition disputes, loss of working-class voters to AfD and Die Linke, and a weak Berlin lead candidate. Surging above 14% in the remaining 72 hours before the election would require a swing of ~+2 percentage points — statistically very unlikely with opinions largely crystallized. The 14% threshold is 1.9 points above the polling average. No prediction market covers this specific SPD threshold for Berlin.

Data basis for this prediction

PolitPro Berlin Wahl-Forecast (17.09.2026): SPD 12,1 %, Linke 20,6 %, CDU 19,9 %, AfD 17,8 %, Grüne 16,0 %
Wahlrecht.de Umfragentrend Berlin September 2026
Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2023 (Wiederholung): SPD 18,4 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 tatsächlich 12,1 % der Stimmen – deutlich unter dem Schwellenwert von 14,0 %. Die Vorhersage trat damit klar ein. Das Ergebnis entspricht exakt dem Umfragewert von PolitPro vom 17. September 2026 und markiert ein Minus von 6,3 Prozentpunkten gegenüber der Wiederholungswahl 2023 (18,4 %). Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Berlin state election), PolitPro (politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026), Al Jazeera (20.09.2026).

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