🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives less than 14.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

62%

Berlin's SPD is at a historic low: Civey shows them at 13%, Infratest dimap at 13–14%, Forsa at 13%. In a city where Die Linke (19–22%) and AfD (18%) lead by a wide margin, the SPD is broadly marginalised. Falling below the 14% threshold corresponds to the median of all current polling institutes. No direct prediction market available; probability derived from poll consensus. Existing Berlin election forecasts (CDU >16.5%, Linke >18%, AfD >16%, Grüne >14%, BSW <5%) are consistent with this prediction.

Data basis for this prediction

Civey Wahlumfrage Berlin 2026 (Sept 2026): SPD 13%
Infratest dimap Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026 (Anfang Sept): SPD 13–14%
Forsa Wahlumfrage Berlin (Aug/Sept 2026): SPD ~13%
Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election polling overview (Stand 12. Sept 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die SPD erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut dem vorläufigen amtlichen Ergebnis (Landeswahlleiter, festgestellt am 21. September 2026) nur ca. 12,1 % der Zweitstimmen – deutlich unter der prognostizierten Schwelle von 14,0 %. Die stärkste Partei wurde Die Linke mit 25,7 %, gefolgt von CDU (18,8 %) und AfD (16,3 %). Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (Ergebnisseite BE2026) sowie berlin.de/wahlen (Pressemitteilung Landeswahlleiter 21.09.2026).

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