Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives less than 14.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
Berlin's SPD is at a historic low: Civey shows them at 13%, Infratest dimap at 13–14%, Forsa at 13%. In a city where Die Linke (19–22%) and AfD (18%) lead by a wide margin, the SPD is broadly marginalised. Falling below the 14% threshold corresponds to the median of all current polling institutes. No direct prediction market available; probability derived from poll consensus. Existing Berlin election forecasts (CDU >16.5%, Linke >18%, AfD >16%, Grüne >14%, BSW <5%) are consistent with this prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- Civey Wahlumfrage Berlin 2026 (Sept 2026): SPD 13%
- Infratest dimap Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026 (Anfang Sept): SPD 13–14%
- Forsa Wahlumfrage Berlin (Aug/Sept 2026): SPD ~13%
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election polling overview (Stand 12. Sept 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Infratest-dimap poll of September 7–9, 2026 (t-online.de, dawum.de): BSW polls at only 4% in Berlin – clearly below the 5% threshold. Current polling: CDU 21%, Die Linke 19%, Greens 18%, AfD 18%, SPD 11%, BSW 4%. BSW is far less rooted in Berlin than in eastern German states; Berlin's electorate with its strong Green and Left-wing base offers BSW limited mobilization potential. No current Berlin poll shows BSW above 5%. No Polymarket market available.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Socialdemokraterna (S) leads all current polls as the strongest party in the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election (open platform prediction confirms this status). Historical results: 30.3% (2022), 28.3% (2018), 31.0% (2014) – three consecutive elections near or above 30%. The open platform prediction ('S strongest party, above SD with >19%') implies S well above 19%. A threshold of >29.5% is more informative than a trivial >19%, but not certain: 2026 party fragmentation could push S slightly below 30%. No Polymarket market for this specific threshold.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Xi Jinping travels to Washington at Trump's invitation on September 24, 2026 — the second bilateral summit of 2026 after the Beijing meeting in May. Xi arrives with a large business delegation, signalling readiness for economic agreements. The agenda explicitly covers trade truce extension, AI governance, and Taiwan according to Heritage Foundation and ZeroFox. Xi uses the UN General Assembly week in New York to make the trip. Prediction-market equivalent estimate: approximately 60–65% probability of a public announcement on trade truce extension.