🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

65%

The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.

Data basis for this prediction

Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2023: SPD 18,4 % (Landeswahlleiter Berlin, Februar 2023)
Wahlumfragen Berlin August/September 2026: SPD 19–22 % (Infratest dimap, Forsa – Stand September 2026)
Metaculus Berlin 2026 SPD >18 %: ~65 % Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 10. September 2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die SPD erzielte bei der Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl am 20. September 2026 laut übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu, wahlen-berlin.de) nur 12,1 % der Stimmen – ein Rückgang von 6,3 Prozentpunkten gegenüber dem Ergebnis 2023 (18,4 %). Die Schwelle von 18,0 % wurde damit deutlich verfehlt. Die SPD erzielte damit ihr historisch schlechtestes Ergebnis bei einer Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl. Gewinnerin der Wahl war überraschend Die Linke mit 25,7 %, gefolgt von CDU (18,8 %), AfD (16,3 %) und Grünen (14,3 %). Quellen: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_Abgeordnetenhaus_von_Berlin_2026 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election | https://politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026

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