Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin House of Representatives
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
All major polling institutes show Berlin FDP consistently at ~4%, well below the 5% threshold (Wahlrecht.de, Dawum.de, Sept 11, 2026). FDP missed in 2023 (4.6%) and 2026 polls are even lower. Calibration: ~72% for failing the threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wahlrecht.de – Berlin Umfragen, Stand 11. September 2026: FDP ~4 %
- Dawum.de – Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026: FDP unter 5-%-Hürde (Stand: 11. September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polls swing from 2.5% (Infostat, Sept 1) to 4.7% (Novus, Sept 11) — both near the 4% threshold. Most September surveys placed Liberalerna below the mark. They barely qualified in 2022 (4.72%). A slight lean toward failing: ~55%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Berlin's SPD is at a historic low: Civey shows them at 13%, Infratest dimap at 13–14%, Forsa at 13%. In a city where Die Linke (19–22%) and AfD (18%) lead by a wide margin, the SPD is broadly marginalised. Falling below the 14% threshold corresponds to the median of all current polling institutes. No direct prediction market available; probability derived from poll consensus. Existing Berlin election forecasts (CDU >16.5%, Linke >18%, AfD >16%, Grüne >14%, BSW <5%) are consistent with this prediction.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Infratest-dimap poll of September 7–9, 2026 (t-online.de, dawum.de): BSW polls at only 4% in Berlin – clearly below the 5% threshold. Current polling: CDU 21%, Die Linke 19%, Greens 18%, AfD 18%, SPD 11%, BSW 4%. BSW is far less rooted in Berlin than in eastern German states; Berlin's electorate with its strong Green and Left-wing base offers BSW limited mobilization potential. No current Berlin poll shows BSW above 5%. No Polymarket market available.