Berlin State Election (20 September 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin House of Representatives
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
·
Predicted for 20. September 2026
·
Based on: Statistical Pattern
All major polling institutes show Berlin FDP consistently at ~4%, well below the 5% threshold (Wahlrecht.de, Dawum.de, Sept 11, 2026). FDP missed in 2023 (4.6%) and 2026 polls are even lower. Calibration: ~72% for failing the threshold.
Data basis for this prediction
- Wahlrecht.de – Berlin Umfragen, Stand 11. September 2026: FDP ~4 %
- Dawum.de – Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026: FDP unter 5-%-Hürde (Stand: 11. September 2026)
Verdict: Hit
Die FDP erhielt bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 laut den amtlichen Ergebnissen (wahlen-berlin.de) und übereinstimmenden Quellen (Wikipedia, politpro.eu) nur 2,5 % der Zweitstimmen – weit unter der 5-%-Hürde – und zog mit 0 Mandaten nicht in das Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Damit ist die Vorhersage klar eingetreten. Das Ergebnis lag sogar deutlich schlechter als erwartet: Die tatsächlichen 2,5 % bedeuteten einen Verlust von 2,1 Prozentpunkten gegenüber 2023 (4,6 %) und bestätigten den in den Umfragen erkennbaren Abwärtstrend vollständig. Quellen: https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/BE2026/Afspraes/agh/ergebnisse_gemeinde_1100.html, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Berlin_state_election, https://politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
With 97% of votes counted, Republican incumbent Roger Wicker leads by just 28 votes per NBC News live results (04.11.2026) — one of the closest Senate races in history. Mississippi election law requires an automatic recount when the margin falls below 0.5% of total votes, expected to conclude by 15–20 November. The remaining 3% of ballots originate primarily from rural precincts with historically higher Republican turnout, giving Wicker a slight statistical edge. No specific Polymarket market for Mississippi was identified.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Peltola a 72% win probability (as of November 3, 2026). The Democrat benefits from Alaska's Ranked Choice Voting system, which structurally favors cross-partisan candidates, as well as strong support from the Indigenous population and Alaska Native organizations. The national environment weighs on Sullivan: Polymarket gives Democrats a 72–77% probability of winning the Senate majority and 95% in the House. Early mail-ballot returns show a slight pro-Democratic lean in Alaska. Because Alaska uses ranked choice, a final count is not expected until November 5.