Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026): FDP falls below 5.0% of valid votes and fails to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
Data basis for this prediction
- INSA Berlin-Wahlumfrage (2.–4. Sept. 2026): FDP 3,0%
- Infratest dimap Berlin (27.–31. Aug. 2026): FDP unter Nachweisgrenze
- wahlrecht.de: Berliner Umfragen Übersicht – alle Institute (Sept. 2026)
- tagesspiegel.de: interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de – Sonntagsfragen Berlin-Wahl 2026
Verdict: Hit
Die FDP erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 lediglich 2,5 % der Zweitstimmen (Erststimmen: 2,2 %) und verfehlte die 5%-Sperrklausel deutlich. Sie erhielt keine Mandate und zieht nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Das Ergebnis entspricht exakt dem vorhergesagten Szenario. Quellen: wahlen-berlin.de (offizielle Landeswahlleiter-Seite), Wikipedia '2026 Berlin state election', politpro.eu.
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