🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026): CDU becomes the largest party

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

50%

The Berlin election on September 20, 2026 is a historically tight three-way race: Infratest dimap (rbb, September 2026): CDU 21%, Linke 19%, Grüne 18%, AfD 18%, SPD 11%. Civey/Tagesspiegel (August 31): Linke 20%, CDU 19%, AfD 18%, Grüne 15%, SPD 13%. CDU leads in most aggregated polls, narrowly ahead of Linke and AfD, always within statistical margin of error. Since no prediction market publishes Berlin frontrunner probabilities, the poll aggregate serves as the basis: CDU ranked first in 3 of the 4 most recently published polls. Implied distribution: CDU ~50%, Linke ~30%, AfD ~20% chance of first place.

Data basis for this prediction

Infratest dimap/rbb Berlin-Wahlumfrage September 2026: CDU 21 %, Linke 19 %, AfD 18 %, Grüne 18 %, SPD 11 %
Civey/Tagesspiegel Sonntagsfrage 31. August 2026: Linke 20 %, CDU 19 %, AfD 18 %
dawum.de/Berlin: Wahltrend-Aggregation September 2026 – CDU geringfügig führend
Wikipedia/Ipsos.de: Berliner Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026 bestätigt für 20. September 2026

Verdict: Miss

Die Linke wurde mit 25,7% klar stärkste Partei, die CDU landete mit 18,8% auf Platz 2. Das Ergebnis war kein Kopf-an-Kopf-Rennen: Die Linke führte mit ~7 Prozentpunkten Vorsprung deutlich. Die Umfragen unterschätzten die Linke erheblich (letzte Umfragen sahen sie bei 19–20%), während die CDU leicht über- bzw. auf Augenhöhe bewertet wurde. Quellen: ZDFheute ('Wahl in Berlin: Linke deutlich vor CDU'), wahlen-berlin.de (offizielles Ergebnis), Wikipedia 'Wahl zum Abgeordnetenhaus von Berlin 2026'.

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