Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): CDU receives more than 16.5% of votes (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current polls (PolitPro / DAWUM, September 11–12, 2026) put CDU Berlin at 19.6%, just behind Die Linke (19.8%) in the tight four-party race. Stefan Evers took over as lead candidate after Kai Wegner stepped down. The prediction threshold of 16.5% is 3.1 percentage points below the polling figure. No Polymarket market; estimate approximately 81%.
Data basis for this prediction
- PolitPro Berlin election forecast: CDU 19,6% (11. Sept 2026, politpro.eu)
- DAWUM.de Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl 2026: CDU 19,6%
- Wikipedia 2026 Berlin state election (Stand September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (WirtschaftsWoche / Stuttgarter Zeitung, September 2026) show SPD under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig at 34–37%, marginally behind AfD (37%). The prediction threshold of 28.0% is 6–9 percentage points below the polling figure; even a substantial polling error would barely push SPD below 28%. No Polymarket market; estimate approximately 84%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (PolitPro / DAWUM, September 11, 2026) show KD at 6.6%. Electoral threshold is 4%; prediction threshold set at 5.0%. KD has only missed the threshold once (2002). Main risk: tactical voting towards Liberalerna (3.5%). No Polymarket market; estimate approximately 74%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
In round 1 on 4 October 2026, incumbent Lula (PT) is expected to finish first without an absolute majority (runoff on 25 October — separate open platform prediction). Historical reference: Lula received ~48.4% in round 1 in 2022 (TSE). As an incumbent with broad institutional support against a divided far-right camp (Flávio Bolsonaro predicted in second place with >26%), a >46% result is plausible, though economic frustration and approval fluctuations could narrow the margin. No Polymarket data found for this specific threshold; calibrated probability: ~52%.