Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): BSW wins less than 5.0% and fails to enter the state parliament
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 9. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) polls at 3.6% in Berlin (politpro.eu, early September 2026) – 1.4 points below the 5% threshold. Even accounting for ±2% polling error, entry remains unlikely. None of the existing open Berlin election predictions covers BSW. Confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- politpro.eu: Berlin election polls September 2026 – BSW 3,6 %
- Wikipedia: 2026 Berlin state election – polling aggregates
- Landeswahlleiter Berlin: 5-%-Sperrklausel §2 Abs. 2 LWahlG Berlin
Verdict: Hit
BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,7 % der Stimmen – damit unter der 5-%-Sperrklausel – und zog nicht ins Abgeordnetenhaus ein (0 Sitze). Die Vorhersage (< 5 %, kein Einzug) ist vollständig eingetreten. Quellen: Berliner Zeitung ('BSW verpasst AGH-Einzug'), Euronews (21.9.2026), politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026, Wikipedia '2026 Berlin state election'.
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