🏛️ Politics · Next Week

Berlin State Election (September 20, 2026): Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) fails the 5% threshold and does not enter the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 17. September 2026 · Predicted for 20. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

55%

Current polls (INSA/Tagesspiegel, mid-September 2026) show BSW at exactly 5% in Berlin — right at the blocking clause. The Dawum.de aggregate trend shows steady BSW decline since spring 2026, with interim readings at 3–4%. Infratest dimap analysis suggests Berlin voters concentrate protest votes more on Die Linke than on BSW. No direct prediction market anchor. Historically, parties polling exactly at the 5% threshold slightly more often fall short: late deciders tend to consolidate around established parties. Estimated probability: ~55%.

Data basis for this prediction

Tagesspiegel / INSA: 'CDU und Linke führen gleichauf – BSW bei fünf Prozent' (September 2026)
Dawum.de: Wahltrend Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026, Aggregat Stand 17. September 2026
Wahlrecht.de: Sonntagsfragen Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin 2026
Infratest dimap: Berlin-Wahlanalyse, September 2026

Verdict: Hit

BSW erzielte bei der Abgeordnetenhauswahl Berlin am 20. September 2026 exakt 4,7 % und scheiterte damit knapp an der 5-%-Hürde. Die Vorhersage trat ein: BSW zog nicht ins Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus ein. Quellen: Wikipedia (2026 Berlin state election), brusselssignal.eu («BSW won 4.7 per cent, short of the 5 per cent needed to enter parliament»), politpro.eu/en/berlin/election/parliament/2026. Die Kernbegründung der Vorhersage – stetiger Umfragerückgang seit Frühjahr 2026 und Konsolidierung der Proteststimmen bei Die Linke – bestätigte sich: Die Linke gewann mit 25,7 % und wurde stärkste Kraft, was auf genau diesen Stimmtransfer hinweist.

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