Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): AfD receives more than 16.0% of votes cast (confirmed by state returning officer Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Current Berlin polling (as of September 2026) shows the AfD consistently at ~17–18% in an extremely tight four-way contest with Die Linke (19–22%), CDU (~19–20%), and Greens (15–18%). The 16.0% threshold is clearly below the polling average; a miss would require systematic polling overestimation of the AfD. No prediction market available; polling base rate implies ~65% probability for AfD >16%.
Data basis for this prediction
- infratest dimap / ARD: Berlin Abgeordnetenhauswahl Umfrage – AfD ca. 18 %, Linke führt (Stand 05.09.2026)
- wahlrecht.de: Wahlumfragen Berlin 2026 – AfD 17–18 %, vier Parteien unter 20 % (Stand 08.09.2026)
- t-online.de: Neue Umfrage Berlin-Wahl 2026 – Linke legt zu, AfD und CDU gleichauf bei ~18–19 % (Stand 06.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Die Linke won 9.9% in MV's 2021 state election. Nationally the party collapsed to ~3.5% in 2025. MV is arguably the party's last eastern stronghold. The open platform prediction puts BSW below 5% in MV, reducing direct competition for left-leaning voters. No MV-specific September 2026 poll retrievable; extrapolation from eastern German trends suggests a borderline 5–7% range. Assessment: ~50/50, slight lean toward clearing the threshold given structural voter anchoring in MV.