Swedish Riksdag election (13 September 2026): Vänsterpartiet (V) receives more than 7.0% of votes cast (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by 14 September 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 7. September 2026
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Predicted for 13. September 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The polling aggregate (politpro.eu, early September 2026) shows Vänsterpartiet steady at 8.1%, confirmed by individual polls (Verian: ~8.4%, Demoskop: similar). The 7.0% bar sits 1.1 points below current polling — a typical safety cushion for Swedish mid-size parties. No prediction market for exact V result; own calibration based on aggregate.
Data basis for this prediction
- Vänsterpartiet Umfragen-Aggregat 8,1 % (politpro.eu / Wikipedia Riksdag-Umfragen, Stand 7. Sep. 2026)
- Verian-Umfrage (20. Aug.–2. Sep. 2026): V ~8,4 %
- Lines.com Riksdag-Prognose: S-Sieg 88 %, SD 2. Platz 73 % (Stand 7. Sep. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.