State election Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 20, 2026): Voter turnout exceeds 65.0% (confirmed by State Returning Officer MV or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 7. September 2026
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Predicted for 20. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
At the 2021 MV state election, voter turnout was 70.8% – the highest since 1998, well above 65%. The 2026 election is highly polarized: the AfD is polling as the strongest party at ~28% according to WahlForecast.de and Dawum.de, with the SPD at ~22%. Such a contest historically generates high mobilization both by AfD supporters and in counter-mobilization. Historically, turnout at state elections with clear anti-AfD mobilization dynamics (e.g., Saxony 2024: 74.4%) has been well above 65%. No prediction market found for turnout; probability based on historical data: 78%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Statista: Wahlbeteiligung Landtagswahl MV 2021 – 70,8 % (Stand 7.9.2026)
- WahlForecast.de: Landtagswahl MV 2026 – AfD ~28 %, SPD ~22 % (Stand 7.9.2026)
- Dawum.de: MV Wahlumfragen 2026 – Aktuelle Sonntagsfragen (Stand 7.9.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Die Linke won 9.9% in MV's 2021 state election. Nationally the party collapsed to ~3.5% in 2025. MV is arguably the party's last eastern stronghold. The open platform prediction puts BSW below 5% in MV, reducing direct competition for left-leaning voters. No MV-specific September 2026 poll retrievable; extrapolation from eastern German trends suggests a borderline 5–7% range. Assessment: ~50/50, slight lean toward clearing the threshold given structural voter anchoring in MV.