🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Kalshi prediction market: Democratic Senate majority at 46.5 cents, implying ~53.5% probability of Republican control. Polymarket (August 26, 2026): 'D Sweep' 48%, 'R Senate + D House' 39%, 'R Sweep' 12% – implying ~51% probability of Republican Senate combined. The Senate map heavily favors Republicans: 22 Republican vs. 13 Democratic seats are up for election; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats while defending exposed seats (Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire). 2026 special elections show ~+10pp Democratic swing vs. 2024, likely insufficient for the Senate. We estimate 58%, slightly above the Kalshi market.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Campari Group reported organic revenue growth of +2.7% in H1 2026 (Q1: +2.9%, Q2: +2.5%), driven by Aperol (+3.3%), the Campari brand (+2.3%), and Espolòn. Management reaffirmed the full-year guidance of 'approximately 3%' during the H1 earnings call (July 2026). The 'House of Aperitifs' grows at +4%, developing markets strongly at +9.1%. With H1 growth of 2.7% and management guidance of ~3% for the full year, the probability of exceeding 2.5% for the full year is approximately 70%. Risks: US tariffs on spirits could weigh on H2; persistent European consumer caution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
FTSE 100 closed at 10,854 points on 25 August 2026 (+0.39%). LongForecast and TradersUnion forecast year-end 2026 levels of 11,500–12,008 points. From 10,854 to the 11,000 threshold is only +1.3% — with four months remaining and a broadly supportive global equity environment. Risks: UK inflation at 2.9% in August 2026 (open platform forecast: UK CPI August >3.0%); Brent crude >$91 (25 Aug) weighs via energy costs; Bank of England may tighten further. No Polymarket market for FTSE 100 year-end found; probability based on analyst consensus (year-end forecast 11,500–12,000) and current index level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD was at 1.1654 on 25 August 2026 (−0.09%). Bank year-end 2026 forecasts: ING 1.18, UBS 1.20, Exchange Rates UK 1.1621, Bank of America 1.15 (downside case). From 1.1654 to the 1.15 threshold is −1.3% — a fall below it would require significant USD strengthening (e.g. a hawkish Warsh surprise at Jackson Hole on 28 Aug, or a eurozone recession). The open platform forecast 'EUR/USD below 1.155 on 28 August 2026' flags near-term downside; medium-term, moderate eurozone growth (open platform Q3 GDP >0.3%) and a potential ECB rate hike to 2.50% (open on platform) support the euro. Calibration based on bank forecast consensus and current spot rate.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Rémy Cointreau achieved organic stabilisation in FY2025-26 after years of steep declines (+0.2% total, cognac –0.5%). In Q4 FY2025-26 and Q1 FY2026-27, cognac is already driving a return to growth; the company states it is 'confident in returning to growth'. Premiumised demand trends in Europe and early China rebound support the scenario. Headwinds: US import tariffs on French cognac dampen US margin and reported growth (currency effects). Consensus estimates imply approximately 50–55% probability of >2% organic growth in H1.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The June 2026 FOMC meeting held rates steady but explicitly signalled a 'higher rate path' (J.P. Morgan/Chatham Financial, June 2026). Nine FOMC members expect at least one hike by year-end; markets are pricing in multiple upward steps as of late August. Fed Chair Warsh – known for his hawkish stance on inflation – reinforces this at his Jackson Hole speech on 28 August 2026. Core PCE is at ≥3.3%, far above the 2% target. Kalshi implied approximately 65–70% probability of at least one hike by December 2026 as of late August.
📈 Economy
Hit
✦ AI
The Eurozone grew +0.4% QoQ in Q2 2026 (Eurostat flash estimate, August 14, 2026). Eurozone Services PMI August 2026 is forecast above 51.0 (expansion, per open prediction). Headwinds include: Brent crude at ~$92.20/bbl (+34% YoY, August 24, 2026) as an energy price shock; ECB 25bp rate hike in September 2026 (open prediction) dampening credit growth; US trade tariffs weighing on exports. Net: moderate slowdown from Q2, but expansion above 0.3% is plausible with a resilient services sector.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
LME copper is trading around $14,640/tonne on 25 August 2026 – an all-time high. COMEX September 2026 futures: $6.64/lb. The market is in significant backwardation (~$370/tonne August-over-September spread) driven by tight LME warehouse stocks and a London bidding war. Copper is already +14% in 2026. AI infrastructure build-out (data centres, power grids) and EV demand keep structural demand elevated. This forecast requires no further gain – only that copper does not correct more than ~8% from its all-time high. No explicit prediction market quotes; model: 70%.
⚽ Sports
✦ AI
Polymarket gives Antonelli 75.2% (as of August 2026, >$200M trading volume). Antonelli leads the championship after 12 of 23 rounds with 242 points and a 59-point gap over George Russell (Mercedes teammate). Lando Norris (McLaren) won most recently in Zandvoort but trails far behind. Mercedes dominates the Constructors' standings. Risk: mechanical failures or driving errors. Forecast anchors to Polymarket (75.2%), discounted slightly to 72% given the long remaining season window.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a Democratic House majority at 88% (>$9.7M traded, as of August 24, 2026). Historical patterns are clear: the president's party loses an average of 26 seats in midterms; Democrats need only ~20 seats to flip the majority. Given the financial and political costs of the Iran war, persistent inflation, and Trump's structural approval challenges, historical headwinds are strong. Polymarket anchor: 88%; own estimate: 85%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at ~7,661 on August 24, 2026. Reaching 8,000 by year-end requires +4.4%. Historical Q4 seasonality: average +4.1% (1990–2025, Bloomberg). Drivers in 2026: AI investment cycle (NVIDIA, Azure), Fed rate normalization (3.50–3.75%), strong labour market. Headwinds: US Core PCE ~3.2% (inflation persistence), geopolitical risks (Iran, Ukraine). No direct Polymarket market for S&P >8,000 on Dec 31 found; I set 56%.
💻 Technology
✦ AI
Polymarket prices a ~90% probability of an Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026 (as of August 24, 2026, up from ~76% in July 2026 following reports of a confidential S-1 filing with the SEC). Anthropic was last valued at ~USD 61B; revenues are growing triple-digits (Claude Enterprise, API access). Google and Amazon as anchor investors support the IPO infrastructure. The US IPO market is active again in 2026 after post-2025 normalization. Counterargument: AI valuation correction, regulatory constraints (EU AI Act, US Senate AI oversight bills) or a market volatility episode could delay timing. Conservative discount vs. Polymarket (90% → 84%) for execution risk and IPO market volatility.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Campari Group reported H1 2026 organic revenue growth of +2.7% (net sales €1.51bn) and Q2 2026 +2.5% (The Spirits Business, 31 July 2026). Management raised FY2026 guidance to at least +3% organic growth. Five consecutive quarters of positive organic growth underpin consistency. Aperol (+3.3%), Campari (+2.3%) and Espolòn (US) drive growth. The $7M US tariff impact was already absorbed in H1. The 2.5% threshold is well below guidance (+3%) and H1 performance. Risks: US demand weakness from recession fears, adverse FX (EUR/USD), unexpected brand sales softness.