📈 Economy · Next Year

Federal Reserve (FOMC) raises the US Federal Funds Rate at least once by 25 basis points before 31 December 2026 (confirmed by FOMC press release or Bloomberg)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 25. August 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

68%

The June 2026 FOMC meeting held rates steady but explicitly signalled a 'higher rate path' (J.P. Morgan/Chatham Financial, June 2026). Nine FOMC members expect at least one hike by year-end; markets are pricing in multiple upward steps as of late August. Fed Chair Warsh – known for his hawkish stance on inflation – reinforces this at his Jackson Hole speech on 28 August 2026. Core PCE is at ≥3.3%, far above the 2% target. Kalshi implied approximately 65–70% probability of at least one hike by December 2026 as of late August.

Data basis for this prediction

J.P. Morgan Asset Management – FOMC Statement June 2026: signals higher rate path
Chatham Financial – FOMC Recap June 2026: Fed holds, Warsh hawkish stance confirmed
CNBC – Fed holds rates steady June 2026; 9 officials expect hike by year-end
Kalshi – FOMC Rate Hike by Dec 2026: ca. 65–70 % (Stand Aug 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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