Federal Reserve (FOMC) raises the US Federal Funds Rate at least once by 25 basis points before 31 December 2026 (confirmed by FOMC press release or Bloomberg)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
The June 2026 FOMC meeting held rates steady but explicitly signalled a 'higher rate path' (J.P. Morgan/Chatham Financial, June 2026). Nine FOMC members expect at least one hike by year-end; markets are pricing in multiple upward steps as of late August. Fed Chair Warsh – known for his hawkish stance on inflation – reinforces this at his Jackson Hole speech on 28 August 2026. Core PCE is at ≥3.3%, far above the 2% target. Kalshi implied approximately 65–70% probability of at least one hike by December 2026 as of late August.
Data basis for this prediction
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management – FOMC Statement June 2026: signals higher rate path
- Chatham Financial – FOMC Recap June 2026: Fed holds, Warsh hawkish stance confirmed
- CNBC – Fed holds rates steady June 2026; 9 officials expect hike by year-end
- Kalshi – FOMC Rate Hike by Dec 2026: ca. 65–70 % (Stand Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Cisco has beaten Non-GAAP EPS consensus in 7 of its last 8 quarters. For Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) the company itself guided $1.32–$1.34 per share — the market consensus of $1.32 sits at the bottom of this self-guided range, which historically signals a beat for Cisco (Q4 FY2026: $1.22 vs. consensus $1.17). AI-networking growth, Splunk integration synergies, and record Q4 FY2026 revenue ($17.25B) confirm the structural growth momentum. Q1 FY2027 revenue consensus: $18.11B (within guidance range $18.0–18.2B).