Thursday, 10. September 2026 · Next update: 18:00 DE EN Log in
Cassandra.news
Tomorrow's news. Today.
Time Horizon All Tomorrow Next Week Next Month Next Year Minimum Probability ≥ 50% ≥ 70% ≥ 90% Day View Today Tomorrow Day after tomorrow
Home RSS ↗
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) wins more than 7.0% of votes at the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026)

BSW achieved 11–16% at 2024 eastern German state elections (Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg). No current MV-specific polls were found; based on eastern German voter-structure patterns, BSW tends well above 5%. The 7% threshold clears the electoral threshold but sits below typical BSW results in comparable eastern states. No prediction market available; classified speculative. Existing Cassandra MV predictions cover only AfD, SPD, and CDU.

55%
Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

Euro Stoxx 50 (STOXX50E) closes above 6,550 on September 30, 2026 (confirmed by Euronext or Bloomberg closing price by September 30, 2026)

The Euro Stoxx 50 closed at approximately 6,385 on September 4, 2026; 6,550 is 2.6% away. Potential catalyst: ECB rate decision September 10 (existing open prediction: +25bp to 2.50%), historically read by markets as a growth-supportive signal for European equities. Additional drivers: strong Eurozone Q2 earnings, weaker USD improving export competitiveness. Risks: elevated oil price (Brent $95), geopolitical premiums. No Polymarket market; own estimate 55%.

55%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Qualcomm officially announces Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 at Snapdragon Summit (September 22–24, 2026), confirmed by Qualcomm press release or The Verge by September 24, 2026

Qualcomm has staged its Snapdragon Summit annually each September/October since 2018 as the main launch platform for its flagship mobile chip. The Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 debuted in 2025; Gen 6 is the expected sequel for 2026. The platform competes directly with Apple's A20 chip announced at the September 2026 event (existing open prediction). The Snapdragon Summit is an annually recurring, industry-known event with near-100% reliability. No Polymarket market; own estimate 90%.

90%
Next Month · Predicted for 24. Sep 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Die Linke receives more than 19.0% of votes at the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026) and becomes the strongest party (confirmed by Landeswahlleiter Berlin or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Current Berlin polls (September 2026) show Die Linke at 20% narrowly ahead of CDU (19.7%), AfD (17.8%), Greens (17%), and SPD (12.1%). BSW (3.7%) and FDP (3.1%) are below the threshold. Polymarket gives Die Linke ~43–44% as the most likely election winner — an increase after the withdrawal of CDU top candidate Kai Wegner. The gap of only 0.3 percentage points to CDU is within the polling margin of error (±2–3%), creating substantial uncertainty. The dual condition (>19.0% AND strongest party) raises the bar: a strong CDU or AfD result on election day could displace Die Linke from the top spot even if it achieves >19%. Compatible with all existing Berlin predictions on the platform.

40%
Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) closes above 27,500 points on 30 September 2026 (NYSE closing price or Bloomberg)

NASDAQ 100 is currently at ~29,450–29,530 (as of 3–4 September 2026). The threshold of 27,500 implies a permissible decline of ~6–7% from today's level by month-end. Macro risks: Brent crude at ~$95/barrel (cost pressure), weak US Nonfarm Payrolls in August 2026 (+22,000 — a confirmed hit on Cassandra); on the other hand the open S&P 500 >7,800 forecast supports structural market optimism. No direct NDX forecast in the existing list.

72%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026
🍾 Beverages ✦ AI

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (NYSE: BUD) reports more than 3.0% organic net revenue growth year-on-year in the Q3 FY2026 trading update (release approx. October 2026, confirmed by AB InBev press release or Bloomberg by 31 October 2026)

AB InBev reported ~2.6% organic revenue growth in H1 2025, driven by premium portfolio shift and emerging markets (Mexico, Brazil, Africa). Management guidance for FY2026 targets +3–5% organic growth. Q3 2025 was comparatively weak, creating a favourable base effect for Q3 2026. Headwinds: US volume pressure (Bud Light aftermath), China consumption slowdown (CPI <1% YoY open Cassandra forecast), strong US dollar. No direct prediction market anchor; no counter-prediction in the list.

47%
Next Month · Predicted for 31. Oct 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

AfD becomes the strongest party in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election (September 20, 2026, confirmed by state electoral officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Current polls (Infratest dimap Aug 26-31; Forsa Aug 21-27; INSA Aug 4-11; weighted average as of September 3, 2026) show AfD at 35.9% vs SPD at 30.0%. The ~6 percentage point lead is stable across pollsters. This would be the first time since the founding of the Federal Republic that a far-right party wins a state election in MV. No direct Polymarket market available; own estimate based on three independent polling institutes.

72%
Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin state election (September 20, 2026): Bündnis 90/Die Grünen win more than 14.0% of votes (confirmed by Berlin electoral officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Current Berlin polls (late August / early September 2026) show Grüne at 15-17%, comfortably above the 14.0% prediction threshold. The Greens have structural strength in Berlin (urban young voters in Pankow, Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg, Charlottenburg). Despite some erosion from the 2023 result of 18.9%, falling below 14% when three independent polls show 15%+ is unlikely. No Polymarket market for Berlin party results found.

74%
Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

Bank of England (BoE) keeps base rate unchanged at 3.75% at the MPC meeting on September 17, 2026 (confirmed by BoE press release by September 17, 2026)

The Bank of England is widely expected to hold its base rate at 3.75% at the September 17 MPC meeting (12:00 London time). Around 90% of economists in Reuters' August 2026 poll forecast no change. The previous vote (6–3 for hold, with Pill, Greene and Mann voting for 4.00%) shows growing hawkish pressure but not yet a majority. UK CPI at 2.9% YoY adds mild upward pressure, below historic hike thresholds. No full Monetary Policy Report at this meeting. Market pricing places a hike to 4.00% in November as the most probable next move.

78%
Next Month · Predicted for 17. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeps cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at the Board meeting on September 29, 2026 (confirmed by RBA press release by September 29, 2026)

The RBA faces a genuinely live decision on September 29, 2026: Australian CPI stands at 3.5% YoY (trimmed mean: 3.6%) — well above the 2–3% target band. NAB forecasts a hike to 4.60%; CBA and Westpac vote for hold. Around 44% of economists surveyed by Finder.com expect at least one more hike before year-end. The majority view (56%) is hold; we follow consensus but flag elevated uncertainty. The RBA is likely to await further disinflation evidence before acting.

56%
Next Month · Predicted for 29. Sep 2026
💻 Technology ✦ AI

Samsung Galaxy Glasses launch globally at the September 16, 2026 event with an official starting price below 400 USD (confirmed by Samsung press release or The Verge by September 16, 2026)

Samsung holds a dedicated Galaxy Glasses global launch event on September 16, 2026. The device runs on the Android XR platform and has so far been available only in the US and South Korea; September 16 marks the worldwide rollout. The reference category Meta Ray-Ban Smart Glasses (3rd gen) is priced at $299–349. Other competitors (Xreal Aura, RayNeo) also sit below $400. Samsung must price competitively to win share. No official pricing released ahead of the event; forecast based on market norms and competitive dynamics.

62%
Next Month · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026
🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Morocco parliamentary election (September 23, 2026): Prime Minister Akhannouch's Rassemblement National des Indépendants (RNI) remains the largest party in the House of Representatives (confirmed by Morocco's Interior Ministry or Reuters by September 24, 2026)

In Morocco's parliamentary election on September 23, 2026, 27 parties compete for 395 seats. PM Akhannouch's RNI enters with the incumbency advantage, a broad organisational network, and credit for implemented reforms. Key challengers are the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) and the reorganising Party for Justice and Development (PJD), regaining strength after its 2021 collapse. No reliable pre-election polling is available; no prediction market quotes exist. The forecast is based on structural incumbency advantages and historical patterns of Moroccan elections (incumbents have almost always led the largest-party ranking since 2011).

52%
Next Month · Predicted for 23. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

Brent crude oil (ICE front-month) closes above 93.00 USD per barrel on September 30, 2026 (confirmed by ICE or Bloomberg closing price by September 30, 2026)

Brent crude trades at ~$95.25/barrel on September 4, 2026 (+42% YoY), driven by persistent Middle East risk premia (Israel-Gaza, Houthi Red Sea attacks) and OPEC+ production discipline. The existing Cassandra forecast (Brent >$90 on September 10) is already priced in; this forecast sets the bar at $93 at quarter-end (September 30). EIA data show declining US crude inventories; the IEA warns of supply tightness through Q4 2026. The year-end forecast (Brent <$84) implies a substantial Q4 price decline, but a drop below $93 as early as September seems unlikely. No direct Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this specific date.

58%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026