Serbian snap parliamentary election (October 25, 2026): voter turnout exceeds 63 percent
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. September 2026
·
Predicted for 25. October 2026
·
Based on: Speculative
Serbia's snap election on October 25, 2026 takes place against the backdrop of the historically unprecedented 'Students in Blockade' civic movement, which has mobilized more than 2 million people since late 2024 — the largest protests in modern Serbian history. The latest Faktor Plus poll (September 16–20, 2026, n=986) shows SNS (Vučić) at 48.6% and the Student List at 37.1%, with 16% undecided. The combination of high polarization, diaspora mobilization, and young first-time voters is expected to exceed the previous record turnout of ~60% (2022). The student movement has explicitly targeted voter registration. No prediction market anchor; own estimate 55% based on structural mobilization analysis.
Data basis for this prediction
- Al Jazeera: 'Serbia's snap election: Can Vucic outmanoeuvre the student revolt?' (28. September 2026)
- Bloomberg: Serbia snap elections vote ballot Oct. 25, Aleksandar Vucic Premiership (9. September 2026)
- Faktor Plus Umfrage (16.–20. September 2026, n=986): SNS 48,6 %, Studentenliste 37,1 %
- OSCE/ODIHR Serbia 2022 Parliamentary Elections: Wahlbeteiligung ~56,8 %
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts faces independent challenger Dan Osborn on November 3, 2026. Prediction markets signal a clear lean: Kalshi prices Ricketts at 70%, Polymarket at 68.5% — both platforms factor in Nebraska's structural Republican advantage (R+14 state), even as recent polling is split (SurveyUSA Sep 14: Osborn +4; Wedgewood Sep 16: Ricketts +4). Cook Political and 270toWin rate the race 'Lean Republican.' Osborn's underdog chances remain real given his cross-partisan appeal as a union representative.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Polymarket prices PQ at 94% (Sept 28, 2026) — by far the highest market probability. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon benefits from the collapse of the incumbent CAQ; the PLQ recovers seats but trails far behind. lines.com puts a PQ majority at 17%, PLQ at 28+ seats at 65.5%. All polls confirm PQ as the clear seat winner. A small discount to the market is applied for possible CAQ base mobilization surprises.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Bečirević is the incumbent Bosniak Presidency member (since 2022) and has served as Chairman of the tripartite Presidency since March 2026. In 2022 he won 55.8% against SDA's Bakir Izetbegović. The 2026 rematch is widely described as much tighter: SDP's governing coalition with Dodik's SNSD has cost Bečirević liberal Bosniak voters; SDA is mobilizing from opposition more effectively than ever. Nationwide polling infrastructure does not exist in Bosnia. Bečirević's incumbency advantage and EU-oriented image remain his strongest assets. No Polymarket market available; own estimate ~54% based on historical results and qualitative sources.