Bank of England (BoE): MPC raises the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% at the 5 November 2026 meeting
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The BoE held at 3.75% on 17 September 2026; next MPC decision: 5 November 2026. Polymarket prices in an 85% probability of a 25bps hike to 4.00% ($256K trading volume, as of September 2026). Supporting factors: UK CPI 3.1% YoY (August 2026), Morningstar preview anticipates potential 4% print for September; fuel prices +23% YoY; energy bills rising again from October 2026 (Hormuz closure driving gas prices). Dampening factors: UK Autumn Budget (28 October, Chancellor Healey) could interact with fiscal contraction; weak housing market (Nationwide HPI: ~+1.5% YoY expected, open Cassandra prediction). Slight downward adjustment from Polymarket (85 → 83%) due to Budget timing uncertainty.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 85 % Wahrscheinlichkeit BoE-Hike 5. Nov 2026; Vol. 256.000 USD (Cambridge Currencies, Polymarket, Sept 2026)
- BoE Leitzins seit 17. Sept 2026: 3,75 % (Bank of England)
- UK CPI August 2026: 3,1 % YoY; Morningstar-Vorschau: 'Hat Inflation 4 % erreicht?' (ONS, Morningstar, Sept 2026)
- Brent Rohöl ~107 USD/Barrel; Energierechnung-Erhöhung ab Oktober 2026 (CNBC, InvestmentWeek, 28. Sept 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Bank of England erhöhte den Leitzins am 5. November 2026 um 25 Basispunkte von 3,75 % auf 4,00 %, 6-3-Abstimmung (Quelle: Bloomberg BoE Decision Day)
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Intuit reports Q1 FY2027 (August–October 2026) after market close on November 20, 2026. Consensus EPS per EarningsWhispers is ~USD 2.47 per share. Intuit has beaten EPS estimates in 15 of the past 16 quarters (~94% beat rate). Structural drivers: TurboTax pricing power, AI-powered QuickBooks tools (Intuit Assist), and rising SMB penetration. No Polymarket market available; assessment based on historical hit rate and product mix dynamics.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,619 on November 12, 2026 (macroradar.io), after a recovery week from 7,376 to 7,619 (+3.3% the prior week). The all-time high is 7,818 (October 6, 2026). The week of November 17–21 brings earnings from NVIDIA (Nov 18, consensus $2.47), Walmart (Nov 19), Target, and Home Depot — a classic catalyst week. The VIX is at 18.7 (down from weekly high of 25.6 on November 10). Positive earnings surprises could drive a +1.1% move to 7,700+. Against: S&P significantly weaker than seasonal norms in November (Topstep base case 7,250–7,550 at 50% probability, though we're already above it). No direct Polymarket market; own assessment based on volatility structure and earnings dynamics.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
COMEX copper trades at approximately $6.18/lb on November 13, 2026 (metalcharts.org), after an all-time high of $6.9285/lb on September 22, 2026. Already today's price fell 0.24%; the decline from ATH stands at 11%. Reaching below $5.50/lb by June 30, 2027 requires a further −11%. Key bearish catalysts: (1) China economic slowdown — China's real estate sector in permanent crisis, copper as the most sensitive leading indicator for global industrial demand; (2) US recession risk from Fed rates at 4.00–4.25% (December 2026 forecast); (3) strong USD structurally pressures commodities; (4) historical precedent: copper bear markets of 2011–2016 (−56%), 2022 (−36%) show such targets are reachable under macroeconomic headwinds. No direct Polymarket/Metaculus market available — own assessment.