US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2026: Monthly Change Negative (Below 0.0%) – Release July 14, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 14. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The headline US CPI for June 2026 is likely to print negative on a monthly basis for the first time in months. Driver: gasoline prices fell ~10% in June as Brent crude dropped ~21% following the mid-June US-Iran MoU. BMO forecasts -0.1% MoM; the Kalshi prediction market shows -0.1% as the most likely outcome (37%), followed by -0.2% (33%) and 0.0% (15%) — aggregate probability of a negative print ~70%. Core CPI (ex-energy/food) remains firm at ~+0.2% to +0.3% MoM. This is complementary to existing open YoY forecasts (>3.5% / >3.0%), which remain achievable via the base-year effect. Note: May 2026 actual MoM was +0.5% — the reversal is dramatic.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi Prediction Market: CPI MoM Juni 2026 – -0,1 % wahrscheinlichster Wert (37 %), negativ ~70 % gesamt (FutureSearch/Kalshi, Stand 13. Juli 2026)
- BMO-Prognose: -0,1 % MoM für Juni 2026 (Kiplinger CPI-Preview, Juli 2026)
- BLS/CNBC: Mai 2026 CPI +0,5 % MoM, YoY +4,2 % (BLS-Release 10. Juni 2026)
- Brent Crude Jun-2026 Einbruch: ~21 % nach US-Iran-MoU (Hintergrund via NPR/CNN, Juni 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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