US Federal Reserve leaves the policy rate unchanged at the 3.50–3.75% target range on July 29, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The effective Federal Funds Rate has been in the 3.50–3.75% target range for several months (confirmed by prediction history: 'Fed holds at 4.25–4.50%' was a miss because rate was already at 3.50–3.75%, CNBC/FRED, July 9, 2026). US CPI for June 2026 was reported at 3.8% YoY on July 14 – well above the Fed's 2.0% target. This means the condition for a cut (inflation on target path) is not met. An upward rate move is also unlikely: the labor market is moderate, and Iran-driven oil price inflation (+10% weekly Brent) is supply-side and would make tightening counterproductive. Polymarket trades 'Fed Decision in July?' as one of its most active economy markets – implied probability of an unchanged rate is very high.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed Funds Rate 3,50–3,75 % bestätigt (CNBC/FRED, Stand 9. Juli 2026 – Vorhersage-Historie)
- US CPI Juni 2026: 3,8 % YoY – über Fed-Ziel von 2,0 % (BLS, 14. Juli 2026, investing.com)
- Polymarket: 'Fed Decision in July?' – meistgehandelter Economy-Markt (Stand 15. Juli 2026)
- FOMC Meeting 28.–29. Juli 2026 (Federal Reserve Meeting Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Tesla reported Q2 2026 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles on July 2, 2026 – ~18% above the Wall Street estimate of 406,024 (TechTimes). EPS consensus stands at ~$0.47 (MarketBeat). UBS analyst Spak targets $0.67 EPS (TipRanks) – a ~43% beat. Auto gross margin ex-credits projected at 19% vs. 17.6% consensus. This earnings season, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock all beat estimates (confirmed). No direct Polymarket anchor; historical Q2 beat rate for large growth companies >65%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD closed at 1.1427 on July 14, 2026 (exchangerates.org.uk). The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.25% in June 2026, well above the US rate (3.50–3.75%). US June CPI came in at 3.8% YoY, below expectations (investing.com, July 14); markets price two further ECB hikes. Breaking above 1.1450 requires only ~0.25% further appreciation. The open prediction 'EUR/USD above 1.1350 on July 18' (lower threshold, later date) confirms the direction. No direct Polymarket anchor; self-calibrated.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The US Census Bureau releases June 2026 retail sales data on July 16. The backdrop is positive: robust US labour market, real wage growth, and consumer resilience. Although US CPI was 3.8% YoY (investing.com, July 14), nominal consumer spending is typically elevated in this environment. Historically, US Retail Sales show positive MoM readings in summer (May–July) in over 65% of all years (Census historical data). No open Cassandra prediction for US June 2026 Retail Sales. No Polymarket anchor.