US Federal Reserve leaves the policy rate unchanged at the 3.50–3.75% target range on July 29, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 15. July 2026
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Predicted for 29. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The effective Federal Funds Rate has been in the 3.50–3.75% target range for several months (confirmed by prediction history: 'Fed holds at 4.25–4.50%' was a miss because rate was already at 3.50–3.75%, CNBC/FRED, July 9, 2026). US CPI for June 2026 was reported at 3.8% YoY on July 14 – well above the Fed's 2.0% target. This means the condition for a cut (inflation on target path) is not met. An upward rate move is also unlikely: the labor market is moderate, and Iran-driven oil price inflation (+10% weekly Brent) is supply-side and would make tightening counterproductive. Polymarket trades 'Fed Decision in July?' as one of its most active economy markets – implied probability of an unchanged rate is very high.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed Funds Rate 3,50–3,75 % bestätigt (CNBC/FRED, Stand 9. Juli 2026 – Vorhersage-Historie)
- US CPI Juni 2026: 3,8 % YoY – über Fed-Ziel von 2,0 % (BLS, 14. Juli 2026, investing.com)
- Polymarket: 'Fed Decision in July?' – meistgehandelter Economy-Markt (Stand 15. Juli 2026)
- FOMC Meeting 28.–29. Juli 2026 (Federal Reserve Meeting Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Federal Reserve hat am 29. Juli 2026 den Leitzins mit 9:3-Stimmen unverändert im Zielband 3,50–3,75 % belassen. Die drei Gegenstimmen (Hammack/Cleveland, Kashkari/Minneapolis, Logan/Dallas) plädierten für eine Anhebung, da die Inflation weiter über dem 2-%-Ziel liegt. Die Vorhersage traf exakt ein – sowohl das Zielband als auch die Entscheidung zum Stillhalten sind korrekt. Quellen: Federal Reserve FOMC Statement vom 29.07.2026 (federalreserve.gov), CNBC 'Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady'.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.