US Advance Retail Sales August 2026 (September 16, 2026): monthly increase of more than +0.3% vs. July 2026, confirmed by U.S. Census Bureau or Bloomberg by September 16, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 5. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US retail sales fell by −0.6% month-on-month in July 2026 (Census Bureau, August 14, 2026). August is seasonally the strongest month for back-to-school purchases; historically, a weak July reading is often followed by a marked bounce. The existing prediction expects US CPI August at >3.3% YoY, indicating that nominal consumer spending continues to be supported by inflation. The Bloomberg consensus for August retail sales is approximately +0.2% to +0.4%; a reading above +0.3% would sit slightly above the median and indicate an unexpected consumption rebound. No direct Kalshi/Polymarket contracts for this release.
Data basis for this prediction
- US Retail Sales Juli 2026: −0,6 % MoM (U.S. Census Bureau / FXMacroData, 14.8.2026)
- Advance Retail Sales Release-Datum August 2026: 16.9.2026, 08:30 EDT (FinanceCalendar.com)
- Bloomberg-Konsens August 2026 Retail Sales: +0,2 % bis +0,4 % MoM (Bloomberg, ca. 4.9.2026)
- US CPI August 2026: >3,3 % YoY (bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersage, 11.9.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US Advance Retail Sales August 2026 (Census Bureau, 16.9., 8:30 EDT): tatsächlich −0,6% MoM – weit unter der geforderten Schwelle von >+0,3%. Konsens war +0,7%. Quelle: TradingEconomics.
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