📈 Economy · Next Month

EUR/USD Spot Rate Falls Below 1.09 USD on at Least One Trading Day in November 2026

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. November 2026 · Predicted for 30. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

20%

EUR/USD at ~1.1256 on November 7, 2026 (12-month change: −3.41%; monthly: −0.21%). Reaching <1.09 requires a −3.2% move — well above the recent monthly pace. Dollar-supportive: Fed December hike 67% (Kalshi) / 69% (OIS) / 74% (JPMorgan); WTI +49.9% YTD; October CPI consensus 3.7% YoY (BLS, November 10). Counterweight: ECB also expected to hike to 2.75% (79% market-implied, December 2026), supporting EUR. No Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level. Entry scenario: renewed Strait of Hormuz escalation triggers dollar-flight. Probability: 20%.

Data basis for this prediction

EUR/USD Kassakurs 1,1256 USD, 12-Monats-Δ −3,41 %, Monats-Δ −0,21 % (XE.com / Trading Economics, 7. November 2026)
Fed Dezember-Zinsschritt: Kalshi 67 %, OIS 69 %, JPMorgan 'likely' (centralbank.watch / Forbes, 7. November 2026)
EZB Dezember 2026 Zinserhöhung auf 2,75 %: 79 % Marktimplizit (Polymarket / Bloomberg, Oktober–November 2026)
Oktober CPI Konsens 3,7 % YoY — BLS-Veröffentlichung 10. November 2026 (Economic Weekly Substack, 6. November 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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