US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Nonfarm Payrolls for July 2026 (released August 7, 2026) come in below 100,000 new jobs created (confirmed by BLS press release)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. July 2026
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Predicted for 7. August 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
July 2026 employment data will be published on the first Friday of August (August 7, 2026). June 2026 data (released July 2) came in at just 57,000 new jobs — far below the consensus of ~110,000 (SignalPro/CNBC), continuing the downtrend; unemployment rose to 4.2%. Capital Economics expects a July rebound to ~130,000. This prediction is a counter-thesis: ongoing tariff uncertainty, lagged monetary-policy employment effects, and structural weakness in manufacturing could prevent July from reaching 100,000. Probability of 40% reflects honest uncertainty — slightly below 50%, as rebound effects are possible, but the trend remains bearish. No prediction-market price available.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: 'U.S. job creation cools in June with payrolls growth of just 57,000; unemployment rate at 4.2%' (02.07.2026)
- SignalPro Markets: 'USD Non Farm Payrolls July 2026: 57 (missed forecast)' (02.07.2026)
- Capital Economics: US Employment Report Preview – July 2026 forecast ~130,000 (Stand 28.07.2026)
- BLS.gov: Employment Situation Summary – June 2026 Results (02.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
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