FOMC December Meeting (Dec 16, 2026): Federal Reserve Hikes the Federal Funds Target Rate by 25bp to 4.00–4.25%
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 11. September 2026
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Predicted for 16. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Monetary policy trajectory: September hike to 3.75–4.00% at 78–81% probability (Polymarket/defirate.com aggregated); October hold per existing Cassandra prediction. For a December hike: US headline CPI August 2026 well above 3.0% YoY (BLS, Sept 11), hawkish Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (Jackson Hole August 2026: 'readiness for further tightening'), 10-year yield near 5% as a market signal of persistent inflation. The existing Cassandra prediction ('Fed funds rate at least 4.00–4.25% by Dec 31, 2026, at least two further 25bp hikes') explicitly implies this December step as hike #2 after September. Counterpoint: the November FOMC (Nov 4) could alternatively be the timing, with December then holding.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket/defirate.com: FOMC September Hike aggregiert 78–81% (11.09.2026)
- BLS: US Headline CPI August 2026 >3,0% YoY (11.09.2026)
- CNBC: 'Fed Chair Warsh hawkish Jackson Hole speech, signals further tightening' (August 2026)
- Bestehende Cassandra-Vorhersage: Fed-Funds-Rate mindestens 4,00–4,25% am 31.12.2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold traded at approximately $4,130 per troy ounce on November 5, 2026 — a one-day gain of +1.68% (+$66) following the Democratic midterm sweep (Democrats won both the Senate and the House, per AP/NBC, November 5, 2026). Polymarket prices a 49% probability of gold exceeding $4,200 in November (as of November 5, 2026). The target is only 1.7% above today's closing level with 25 trading days remaining. Upside drivers: Iran de-escalation by new Democratic Congress, falling oil prices (WTI −1.13% to $87.13). Risk factors: profit-taking, rising real yields.