Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged at 37.00% on July 23, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Turkish Central Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle after −900 basis points in reductions (June 2025–January 2026) and has held the benchmark rate (one-week repo) at 37.00% at three consecutive meetings since March 2026. TCMB Governor Karahan explicitly signaled in late June 2026 no rush to ease further, citing the need to assess current CPI data. At the July meeting (July 23, 2026), official communication clearly points to a fourth consecutive hold. No direct market price anchor available; based on official TCMB signals: 75% probability of holding at 37.00%.
Data basis for this prediction
- TCMB hält Leitzins bei 37,00% – Juni 2026 (3. Sitzung in Folge ohne Änderung) (Focus Economics, 11.06.2026)
- Gouverneur Karahan: 'No rush to ease before late July' (Bloomberg, 25.06.2026)
- TCMB Pressemitteilung ANO2026-23; nächste Sitzung 23. Juli 2026 (tcmb.gov.tr)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] TCMB Pressemitteilung ANO2026-23 bestätigt: Leitzins (1-Wochen-Repo) bleibt am 23. Juli 2026 unverändert bei 37,00%. Übernacht-Zinssätze ebenfalls unverändert. Quelle: tcmb.gov.tr, tradingeconomics.com
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