Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on August 11, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 11. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The RBA raised its benchmark rate to 4.35% after three consecutive hikes earlier in 2026 and held unchanged at its July 2026 meeting. The next decision falls on August 11, 2026. Economist surveys (as of July 2026, Finder.com.au): 55% expect at least one more RBA hike in 2026; of those, 62% see August as the most likely timing. However, the July pause may signal the start of a hold cycle — 45% expect another pause. Decisive will be the next Australian CPI report. No direct market price signal available. Own estimate: 45% probability of a hike to 4.60% in August.
Data basis for this prediction
- RBA hält Leitzins Juli 2026 bei 4,35% – nach drei Erhöhungen in 2026 (CommBank, Juli 2026)
- Finder.com.au Economist Survey Juli 2026: 55% erwarten weitere RBA-Erhöhung 2026; 62% davon sehen August
- Nächste RBA-Zinsentscheidung: 11. August 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die RBA hat am 11. August 2026 den Leitzins unverändert bei 4,35 % belassen – keine Erhöhung auf 4,60 %. Die Entscheidung war einstimmig. Die RBA verlängerte damit die im Juni begonnene Pause und nahm keine weitere Straffung vor. Ausschlaggebend waren: nachlassende Häuserpreise, eine etwas stärker als erwartet abkühlende Arbeitmarktlage sowie die Einschätzung, dass die bisherigen Zinserhöhungen noch nachwirken. Inflation blieb zwar erhöht, reichte aber nicht für eine sofortige weitere Erhöhung. Quellen: RBA Media Release mr-26-19 (rba.gov.au), Bloomberg 2026-08-11, ABC News 2026-08-11, savings.com.au Live-Blog.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.