Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on August 11, 2026
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 18. July 2026
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Predicted for 11. August 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The RBA raised its benchmark rate to 4.35% after three consecutive hikes earlier in 2026 and held unchanged at its July 2026 meeting. The next decision falls on August 11, 2026. Economist surveys (as of July 2026, Finder.com.au): 55% expect at least one more RBA hike in 2026; of those, 62% see August as the most likely timing. However, the July pause may signal the start of a hold cycle — 45% expect another pause. Decisive will be the next Australian CPI report. No direct market price signal available. Own estimate: 45% probability of a hike to 4.60% in August.
Data basis for this prediction
- RBA hält Leitzins Juli 2026 bei 4,35% – nach drei Erhöhungen in 2026 (CommBank, Juli 2026)
- Finder.com.au Economist Survey Juli 2026: 55% erwarten weitere RBA-Erhöhung 2026; 62% davon sehen August
- Nächste RBA-Zinsentscheidung: 11. August 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die RBA hat am 11. August 2026 den Leitzins unverändert bei 4,35 % belassen – keine Erhöhung auf 4,60 %. Die Entscheidung war einstimmig. Die RBA verlängerte damit die im Juni begonnene Pause und nahm keine weitere Straffung vor. Ausschlaggebend waren: nachlassende Häuserpreise, eine etwas stärker als erwartet abkühlende Arbeitmarktlage sowie die Einschätzung, dass die bisherigen Zinserhöhungen noch nachwirken. Inflation blieb zwar erhöht, reichte aber nicht für eine sofortige weitere Erhöhung. Quellen: RBA Media Release mr-26-19 (rba.gov.au), Bloomberg 2026-08-11, ABC News 2026-08-11, savings.com.au Live-Blog.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.