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The Open Championship 2026 (Royal Birkdale, 154th Open, 16–19 July): Collin Morikawa (USA) finishes the tournament in the Top 10 of the overall standings
Probability
29%
Morikawa won the 2021 Open Championship at Royal St George's – his iron and wedge play is considered ideal for links conditions. Outright win odds: ~+3000 (implied ~3.2% probability at DraftKings/FanDuel). For players at this price, historical top-10 rates at majors run ~28–32%. He is approximately the 9th–10th favourite in the field; Rahm's top-10 quote (+240 at FanDuel) provides a comparable anchor. No existing platform prediction names Morikawa – he is the only former Open champion among the market favourites without platform coverage.
Data basis for this prediction
- Open Championship 2026 Outright: Scheffler +590, McIlroy +760, Morikawa +3000–3100 (DraftKings/FanDuel, 13.07.2026)
- Morikawa: Open Champion 2021 (Royal St George's) – dokumentierte Links-Expertise (PGA Tour historische Daten)
- Rahm Top-10-Quote: +240 (FanDuel) als Kalibrierungsreferenz für obere Mittelfeldpreise (14.07.2026)
- 154th Open Championship, Royal Birkdale: 160 Spieler Startfeld (golfchannel.com, 14.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
Collin Morikawa beendete die 154th Open Championship 2026 in Royal Birkdale auf dem geteilten 18. Platz (3 unter Par, Abschlussrunde 69). Das Turnier gewann Ryan Fox mit 10 unter Par vor Cameron Young. Morikawa verfehlte die Top 10 damit deutlich. Quelle: Sports Illustrated / si.com ('Collin Morikawa, Max Homa Share 18th Place at The Open') und CBS Sports Tournament Results 2026.