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Tour de France 2026 Stage 11 (Vichy–Nevers, 161 km flat, 15 July): Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) wins in the bunch sprint
Probability
30%
Stage 11 is the first flat stage after the mountain phase and rest day – a classic sprinter's profile. Jasper Philipsen leads the points classification after Stage 9 and is the strongest pure sprinter in the field. Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), who won Stage 9, is the main rival; Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Wout van Aert (Visma) also lurk. No prediction market for individual stage winners available; bookmaker odds for a specific sprinter in such stages typically imply ~25–33%. The existing platform prediction of Philipsen winning Stage 17's sprint confirms his leading role; Stage 11 is not covered.
Data basis for this prediction
- TdF 2026 Stage Schedule: Etappe 11 Vichy–Nevers 161 km Flachetappe, 15. Juli (franceletour.com, 14.07.2026)
- GC-Klassement nach Etappe 9: Pogačar führt; Philipsen führt Punktewertung (Cyclingnews, 13.07.2026)
- Etappe 9 Sieger: Tim Merlier (Soudal QS) im Massensprint, Stage verkürzt (Cyclingnews, 12.07.2026)
- Polymarket TdF-Gesamtsieger: Pogačar 93,5%, Vingegaard 4,3% (Stand 14.07.2026)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Tim Merlier gewann die Tour-de-France-2026-Etappe 11 (Vichy–Nevers, Sprint) – nicht Jasper Philipsen. (Quelle: Suchergebnis mit Stage-11-Ergebnis)