📈 Economy · Next Month

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,600 points on July 31, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

57%

S&P 500 close on July 14, 2026: ~7,510. A close above 7,600 by July 31 requires ~+1.2%. The Fed is likely to hold at 3.50–3.75% on July 29 (Kalshi: 67% hold). The big-tech earnings season (Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, July 22–30) is historically a market driver. Softer CPI (3.5% vs. 3.8% expected) eased recession fears on July 14. Key risks: Iran escalation, unexpectedly hawkish Fed commentary on July 29. Existing Cassandra S&P 500 predictions end July 22 — July 31 is still uncovered.

Data basis for this prediction

TheStreet/Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 ca. 7.510 Punkte am 14.07.2026 (intraday +0,5% nach CPI)
Kalshi: Fed-Entscheid 29.07.2026 – 67% No Change, 34% +25 Basispunkte (Stand 14.07.2026)
Polymarket: S&P 500 (SPY) >760 USD im Juli 2026 = 62% Wahrscheinlichkeit
BLS: CPI Juni 2026 = 3,5% YoY (softer als 3,8% Konsens; 14.07.2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der S&P 500 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 7.489,72 Punkten – ein Tagesgewinn von +52,09 Punkten (+0,7%), aber deutlich unter der Schwelle von 7.600. Die Differenz zum Ziel betrug rund 110 Punkte (~1,5%). Obwohl Amazon am selben Tag stark zulegte und die Big-Tech-Ergebnissaison insgesamt positiv verlief (CNBC, 31. Juli 2026), reichte der Aufschwung nicht aus. Der Index lag zum Monatsende sogar leicht unter dem Niveau vom 1. Juli 2026 (7.513,50 lt. Multpl.com). Quellen: CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html), Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/07/31/wall-street-stocks-dow-nasdaq/ee08da40-8d1d-11f1-8912-d71e69d679d7_story.html), Multpl.com (https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-historical-prices/table/by-month).

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