ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket prices the probability of a hold at 88%, Kalshi at around 90%. The ECB raised the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25% only on June 11, 2026 — its first hike since 2023. Eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June (from 3.2% in May), moving back toward the 2% target. July is not a projection meeting, making the bar for surprise action especially high. Just six weeks after the last hike, another move is barely defensible from a communication standpoint.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'ECB Interest Rates: July 2026' – 88% No Change (Stand 14.07.2026)
- Kalshi: kxcbdecisioneu-26jul23 – ~90% No Change (Stand 14.07.2026)
- ECB Pressemitteilung ecb.mp260611: Einlagensatz +25bp auf 2,25% am 11.06.2026
- Eurostat/Reuters: Eurozone HVPI Juni 2026 = 2,8% YoY (Vormonat: 3,2%)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] EZB hält Einlagensatz am 23. Juli 2026 bei 2,25%. Multiple Quellen bestätigen Hold-Entscheidung. Quelle: ECB Watch, piptheory.com
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✦ AI
The S&P 500 dropped 4.36% on 5 November 2026 to 7,353.73 — its steepest one-day fall since April 2025 — triggered by an AI-chip selloff that wiped out the post-midterm rally (4 November: +1.72% to 7,698.80). Closing above 7,500 by 13 November requires a +2.0% recovery over 6 trading sessions. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan maintain year-end targets of 7,400–8,100; S&P 500 EPS growth consensus for 2026 stands at +14% YoY. Downside risks: elevated Treasury yields, persistent AI capex uncertainty. No specific Polymarket/Kalshi market found for this level.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The BLS releases October 2026 CPI on November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation forecasts 3.82 percent YoY; the Cleveland Fed nowcasting model forecasts 3.74 percent — both clearly above the 3.7 percent threshold. The September 2026 prior reading was exactly 3.7 percent. Rising energy prices (Strait of Hormuz effectively closed since mid-October) and stable core inflation support a further uptick. An existing open platform prediction covers CPI >3.5%; this forecast raises the bar by 20 basis points. A miss would primarily require unexpected weakness in the energy component or food prices.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold (XAU/USD) rose to $4,134.83 on 5 November 2026 — driven by the Democratic midterm sweep (higher fiscal spending expected) and persistent inflation pressure. Kalshi's Dec 31 settlement market shows ~32% probability for a close above $4,400 and ~43% for above $4,300. Reaching the $4,400 year-end target would require a further ~6.4% gain. Supporting factors: fiscal expansion, geopolitical risks, structurally high central bank demand; UBS forecasts $4,800, JPMorgan $6,000 at year-end. Headwind: hawkish Fed stance (Polymarket: 72.5% for a December rate hike to 4.00–4.25%). Prediction anchors on Kalshi's ~32% for >$4,400.