ECB leaves deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% on July 23, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 14. July 2026
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Predicted for 23. July 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket prices the probability of a hold at 88%, Kalshi at around 90%. The ECB raised the deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25% only on June 11, 2026 — its first hike since 2023. Eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June (from 3.2% in May), moving back toward the 2% target. July is not a projection meeting, making the bar for surprise action especially high. Just six weeks after the last hike, another move is barely defensible from a communication standpoint.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'ECB Interest Rates: July 2026' – 88% No Change (Stand 14.07.2026)
- Kalshi: kxcbdecisioneu-26jul23 – ~90% No Change (Stand 14.07.2026)
- ECB Pressemitteilung ecb.mp260611: Einlagensatz +25bp auf 2,25% am 11.06.2026
- Eurostat/Reuters: Eurozone HVPI Juni 2026 = 2,8% YoY (Vormonat: 3,2%)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
EUR/USD closed at 1.1392 on July 14, 2026 — near a one-year low, weighed down by Middle East tensions, high oil prices, and sticky US inflation (June 2026 CPI: +3.8% YoY). Weekly high was 1.14585 (July 10). The ECB decides on July 23; expectation: deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% (raised in June 2026). If the ECB strikes an unexpectedly hawkish tone or signals further hikes for September, EUR/USD could break above 1.1450. Headwinds: ongoing Iran/Hormuz crisis and energy price risks. No Polymarket market found. Estimate: ~33% probability of EUR/USD > 1.1450 on July 24.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Apple reports Q3 FY2026 results on July 30, 2026, after market close (quarter covering April–June 2026). Consensus EPS is approximately $1.89 (diluted, range $1.88–$1.93 depending on source). Apple has beaten EPS expectations in each of the last four quarters (historical beat rate: 4/4). In Q2 FY2026 (ending March 2026), Apple generated revenue of $111.2 billion (+17% YoY). For Q3, the company guides for 14–17% YoY revenue growth (revenue consensus: ~$108.9–$110.8 billion). Drivers: continued AI-driven iPhone upgrade cycle ('Apple Intelligence'), strong Services growth, and solid margins. No Polymarket market found for this event. Estimate based on historical beat frequency and growth momentum.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold is testing the $4,000 level on July 14, 2026 (currently ~$3,996). Drivers: US-Iran crisis with naval blockade (Brent +9.6%), expected Fed hold on July 29 (dollar pressure), softer CPI (3.5%), and persistent geopolitical uncertainty as a safe-haven anchor. A move to $4,050 by July 31 implies ~+1.4% from today's level. Existing Cassandra predictions reference gold on July 18 (>$4,100 and >$3,950) — the month-end close on July 31 at the $4,050 threshold is new.