📈 Economy
· Next Week
S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,500 points on July 31, 2026
Probability
52%
The S&P 500 closed July 24 at 7,408 (–1.21%, worst session since June 23), weighed down by Alphabet capex concerns and new US tariffs. However, through July 31 the heaviest earnings week of the season is due: Meta (Jul 29), Microsoft (Jul 29), Amazon (Jul 30), Apple (Jul 30), Mastercard (Jul 30), and Qualcomm (Jul 29) — six megacap reports that historically dominate index direction. A recovery to 7,500 (+1.24%) is plausible on broad-based beats. Counter-risk: tariff shock persistence and ECB rate-hike repricing. Probability: 52%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Benzinga: 'S&P 500 July 24 open up or down? Polymarket, oil prices, Alphabet, Tesla earnings, AI spending' — S&P 500 closed 7,408.30, –1.21% (24. Juli 2026)
- Polymarket: S&P 500 year-end 2026 consensus targets $7,600–$8,000 (Juli 2026, $32.840 Handelsvolumen)
- Earnings calendar: Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Mastercard, Qualcomm all reporting July 29–30, 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der S&P 500 schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei 7.489,72 Punkten (+0,70 %, +51,09 Punkte) – knapp unter der Schwelle von 7.500. Zwar wurde die 7.500 intraday kurzzeitig überschritten (Session-High: 7.512,04), doch das Schlusskurs-Kriterium wurde verfehlt. Die positiven Earnings-Beats von Amazon (starkes Cloud-Wachstum, +10 % nachbörslich) und Microsoft stützten den Markt, konnten jedoch steigende Treasury-Renditen und anhaltende Makrosorgen (US-Iran-Verhandlungen, Tariff-Druck) nicht vollständig kompensieren. Quellen: BBN Times ('S&P 500 closes at 7,489.72'), CNBC Live Updates 31.7.2026, Washington Post Marktbericht 31.7.2026.