S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,650 points on July 18, 2026, marking a new all-time high
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 18. July 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The S&P 500 stands at 7,552 on July 13, 2026 – the prior all-time high was 7,613 (early July). Reaching 7,650 requires a +1.3% gain in 5 trading days. FactSet projects Q2 2026 EPS growth of 23.3% YoY – the highest since the start of the AI cycle. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to 8,000. Headwinds: chip stocks falling on Iran/Middle East tensions; oil shock raises recession risk. The earnings-season bull case requires broad beats, not just from banks.
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC: S&P 500 fällt auf 7.552 – Chipwerte und Nahost-Krise (13.07.2026)
- FactSet: Q2 2026 EPS-Wachstumsprognose 23,3% YoY (S&P 500 Earnings Preview, Juli 2026)
- Advisor Perspectives: S&P 500 Allzeithoch 7.613 – nahe Rekordstand (07.–10.07.2026)
- Goldman Sachs: Jahresendziel S&P 500 = 8.000 Punkte (2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] S&P 500 lag am 17. Juli 2026 bei ca. 7.457 Punkten. Sowohl das Übertreffen von 7.650 als auch das Markieren eines neuen Allzeithochs am 18. Juli ist nach dem Vortags-Selloff definitiv ausgeschlossen. Quelle: Yahoo Finance.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.