Thursday, 10. September 2026 · Next update: 18:00 DE EN Log in
Cassandra.news
Tomorrow's news. Today.
📈 Economy · Next Week

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,650 points on July 18, 2026, marking a new all-time high

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 13. July 2026 · Predicted for 18. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative
Probability
38%

The S&P 500 stands at 7,552 on July 13, 2026 – the prior all-time high was 7,613 (early July). Reaching 7,650 requires a +1.3% gain in 5 trading days. FactSet projects Q2 2026 EPS growth of 23.3% YoY – the highest since the start of the AI cycle. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target to 8,000. Headwinds: chip stocks falling on Iran/Middle East tensions; oil shock raises recession risk. The earnings-season bull case requires broad beats, not just from banks.

Data basis for this prediction
  • CNBC: S&P 500 fällt auf 7.552 – Chipwerte und Nahost-Krise (13.07.2026)
  • FactSet: Q2 2026 EPS-Wachstumsprognose 23,3% YoY (S&P 500 Earnings Preview, Juli 2026)
  • Advisor Perspectives: S&P 500 Allzeithoch 7.613 – nahe Rekordstand (07.–10.07.2026)
  • Goldman Sachs: Jahresendziel S&P 500 = 8.000 Punkte (2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] S&P 500 lag am 17. Juli 2026 bei ca. 7.457 Punkten. Sowohl das Übertreffen von 7.650 als auch das Markieren eines neuen Allzeithochs am 18. Juli ist nach dem Vortags-Selloff definitiv ausgeschlossen. Quelle: Yahoo Finance.
Related Predictions
📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%
Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%
Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026
📈 Economy ✦ AI

Bitcoin (BTC/USD spot) closes above $100,000 per unit on December 31, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or CoinGecko by December 31, 2026)

Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.

42%
Next Year · Predicted for 31. Dec 2026