SNS (Serbian Progressive Party / Vučić coalition list) wins the most seats in the Serbian parliamentary election (October 25, 2026, confirmed by Republic Electoral Commission or Reuters by October 26, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. September 2026
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Predicted for 25. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The SNS-led coalition list stands at 48.6% of votes according to Faktor Plus polling from September 21, 2026 (up from 47.2% in early September), with the Student List at ~36–40%. Kalshi prices the SNS plurality at ~43% implied probability, reflecting the market's pricing of uncertainty from the anti-corruption opposition movement. We deviate slightly upward (+12pp): SNS has structural advantages in mobilization infrastructure, state media, and historically dominant results. The snap election was strategically called by Vučić to consolidate power ahead of a presidential transition.
Data basis for this prediction
- Faktor Plus Umfrage: SNS-Liste 48,6 % (21.09.2026, balk.hu / Faktor Plus)
- Kalshi: SNS Parlamentspluralität ~43 % implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 29.09.2026)
- Bloomberg: Serbien Snap-Wahl 25. Oktober 2026 angekündigt (09.09.2026)
- Al Jazeera: Serbien — Studentenbewegung als stärkste Opposition (28.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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✦ AI
Kalshi sees Labour as slight favorite at 53% vs. National at 48% (as of 29.09.2026). Latest poll (1News/Verian, 28.09.2026): National 28%, Labour 28%, Greens 16% (historic high), ACT 11%, NZ First 9%. Under MMP the left bloc (Labour + Greens + NZ First) totals ~53% and comfortably exceeds the 61-seat majority threshold; the right bloc (National + ACT) reaches only 39% and depends on NZ First. The historically strong Greens result strengthens the left bloc's negotiating position. Main risk: NZ First opts for a coalition with National and ACT.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls (September 2026) consistently place Netanyahu's coalition bloc below the required 61-seat majority in 4 of 5 surveys. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads in 4 of 5 polls as the strongest single party. Arab parties again hold the potential balance of power. This prediction is independent of and does not contradict the existing Cassandra prediction (Likud as the seat-strongest single party): a party can be the largest single party without its bloc reaching a majority. Israel has held six elections since 2019, repeatedly ending without a stable majority — a structural deadlock pattern. The only scenario against this prediction would be an unexpected consolidation of small coalition partners pushing the bloc just above 61 seats.