🏛️ Politics · Next Month

Labour Party (New Zealand) forms the new government in coalition with the Greens following the general election (November 7, 2026, confirmed by Elections New Zealand or Reuters by November 9, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 29. September 2026 · Predicted for 7. November 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

55%

Kalshi sees Labour as slight favorite at 53% vs. National at 48% (as of 29.09.2026). Latest poll (1News/Verian, 28.09.2026): National 28%, Labour 28%, Greens 16% (historic high), ACT 11%, NZ First 9%. Under MMP the left bloc (Labour + Greens + NZ First) totals ~53% and comfortably exceeds the 61-seat majority threshold; the right bloc (National + ACT) reaches only 39% and depends on NZ First. The historically strong Greens result strengthens the left bloc's negotiating position. Main risk: NZ First opts for a coalition with National and ACT.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi: Labour gewinnt NZ-Wahl 2026: 53 %; National: 48 % (kalshi.com, 29.09.2026)
1News/Verian Poll: National 28 %, Labour 28 %, Greens 16 % – Greens historisches Hoch (1news.co.nz, 28.09.2026)
RNZ: 'Labour and National both under 30% as Greens surge' (rnz.co.nz, 28.09.2026)

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage ist nicht eingetreten. Bei der Wahl am 7. November 2026 erzielte Labour 29,36 % und National 29,21 % – historisch knapp, aber ohne klaren Sieger. Die amtierende National-ACT-NZ First-Koalition hält laut vorläufigem Auszählungsstand 67 von 131 Sitzen (knappe Mehrheit) und ist damit im Vorteil, die Regierung fortzuführen, nicht Labour+Greens. Eine Bestätigung einer Labour-Greens-Koalition bis 9. November war schon rein technisch unmöglich: Alle Parteien erklärten die Wahl für zu knapp, die offiziellen Ergebnisse (inkl. Briefwahlstimmen) werden erst am 27. November veröffentlicht, und Koalitionsverhandlungen werden Wochen dauern. Der entscheidende Irrtum der Prognose: NZ First verliess den linken Block und stützt weiterhin National+ACT; zudem brach National nicht so stark ein wie erwartet, was den rechten Block knapp bei der Mehrheit hält. Quellen: Al Jazeera (07.11.2026), NPR (08.11.2026), CNN (07.11.2026), NZZ (08.11.2026), Wikipedia '2026 New Zealand general election'.

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