Labour Party (New Zealand) forms the new government in coalition with the Greens following the general election (November 7, 2026, confirmed by Elections New Zealand or Reuters by November 9, 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 29. September 2026
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Predicted for 7. November 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Kalshi sees Labour as slight favorite at 53% vs. National at 48% (as of 29.09.2026). Latest poll (1News/Verian, 28.09.2026): National 28%, Labour 28%, Greens 16% (historic high), ACT 11%, NZ First 9%. Under MMP the left bloc (Labour + Greens + NZ First) totals ~53% and comfortably exceeds the 61-seat majority threshold; the right bloc (National + ACT) reaches only 39% and depends on NZ First. The historically strong Greens result strengthens the left bloc's negotiating position. Main risk: NZ First opts for a coalition with National and ACT.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Labour gewinnt NZ-Wahl 2026: 53 %; National: 48 % (kalshi.com, 29.09.2026)
- 1News/Verian Poll: National 28 %, Labour 28 %, Greens 16 % – Greens historisches Hoch (1news.co.nz, 28.09.2026)
- RNZ: 'Labour and National both under 30% as Greens surge' (rnz.co.nz, 28.09.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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