Swiss National Bank (SNB) raises key rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% at its December 11, 2026 meeting (confirmed by SNB press release or Bloomberg by December 11, 2026, 15:30 CET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 11. December 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The SNB held rates unanimously at 0% at its September 24, 2026 meeting — in line with all economist forecasts and a market that priced 94% probability of no change beforehand. At the same time, the SNB lifted its inflation forecasts for 2026 (+0.7%), 2027 (+0.8%) and 2028 (+0.8%). Markets currently price approximately 50% probability of a hike at the December meeting and >90% probability of a move by spring 2027. Key drivers: CHF depreciation amid energy price pressure (Iran channel) and the global tightening backdrop (ECB, Fed, BoJ all in hiking mode). Counterbalancing: the SNB is structurally one of the most cautious central banks; an oil-price decline could push the first move to 2027. Market anchor of ~50% used as the calibration baseline.
Data basis for this prediction
- SNB September-Entscheidung: 0 % unverändert, einstimmig (24.09.2026, CNBC / investinglive.com)
- Marktpreisbildung: ~50 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Dez.-Erhöhung; >90 % bis Frühjahr 2027 (congress.net / biggo.com / rateprobability.com, Sept. 2026)
- SNB hebt Inflationsprognosen 2026–2028 an (admiralmarkets.com / syzgroup.com, 24.09.2026)
- CHF-Abwertung und hohe Ölpreise erhöhen Handlungsdruck; Dezember-Entscheidung bleibt offen (gurufocus.com, Sept. 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, 2026. Since then, the inflation picture has deteriorated further: eurozone inflation climbed to 3.3% year-on-year in August 2026 — the highest in three years — well above the 2% target. Brent crude, per an active Cassandra forecast, is expected above 108 USD/barrel on October 4, amplifying imported inflation risks. ECB staff projections see 2026 full-year headline inflation at 3.0%. OIS rate markets (RateProbability.com/ECBWatch) imply a 75.1% probability of another hike at the October meeting — significantly more hawkish than Polymarket, which prices a 54% probability of no change (= 46% hike). This prediction relies on OIS swaps as the more reliable indicator of the monetary policy path; the combination of an inflation overshoot and an energy shock gives the hawkish faction on the ECB Governing Council the stronger argument.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Gold is trading on September 28, 2026 in a daily range of approximately 4,255–4,314 USD (midpoint ~4,280 USD). The active Cassandra prediction calls for a close below 4,300 USD on September 30, meaning the NFP-day starting point is likely around 4,270–4,299 USD. The consensus estimate for the US September 2026 NFP is just +50,000 jobs per Capital Economics/CNBC — a historically weak print that typically weighs on the USD and lifts gold as a safe haven. An active Cassandra prediction also calls for EUR/USD above 1.1400 on the same day, confirming dollar softness. Weak NFP data could force the Fed toward a pause, providing additional tailwind for gold. The 4,300 USD threshold is moderate; the key is the directional impulse from a NFP miss.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Silver trades at $62.63/oz on September 27, 2026 — already 7.4% below the September high of $67.63 (September 4). Fed futures price a 65% (centralbank.watch) to 75.8% (CME FedWatch) probability of a 25bp rate hike at the October 28 FOMC. The Fed last hiked to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026 — the first increase since 2023. Rate-sensitive precious metals face structural selling pressure when the dollar rate path remains steep. The October 2 NFP report is the decisive catalyst: strong employment data would cement October hike expectations and strengthen the USD, pressing silver below the $61.00 mark (–2.6% from spot). No directly matching Polymarket market; probability calibrated at ~40%.