European Central Bank raises deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% at the October 29, 2026 meeting (confirmed by ECB press release or Bloomberg by October 29, 2026, 15:00 CET)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 29. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, 2026. Since then, the inflation picture has deteriorated further: eurozone inflation climbed to 3.3% year-on-year in August 2026 — the highest in three years — well above the 2% target. Brent crude, per an active Cassandra forecast, is expected above 108 USD/barrel on October 4, amplifying imported inflation risks. ECB staff projections see 2026 full-year headline inflation at 3.0%. OIS rate markets (RateProbability.com/ECBWatch) imply a 75.1% probability of another hike at the October meeting — significantly more hawkish than Polymarket, which prices a 54% probability of no change (= 46% hike). This prediction relies on OIS swaps as the more reliable indicator of the monetary policy path; the combination of an inflation overshoot and an energy shock gives the hawkish faction on the ECB Governing Council the stronger argument.
Data basis for this prediction
- EZB-Entscheid Sep 10, 2026: Depositenzinssatz +25bp auf 2,50 % (ECB.europa.eu, 10. Sep 2026)
- Eurozonen-Inflation August 2026: 3,3 % JVJ – 3-Jahres-Hoch (Eurostat, Sep 2026)
- OIS-Swaps: 75,1 % Wahrscheinlichkeit Zinserhöhung Oktober 2026 (RateProbability.com / ECBWatch, 28. Sep 2026)
- Polymarket 'ECB no change Oct 2026': 54 % → impliziert 46 % Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit (28. Sep 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die EZB hielt den Einlagenzinssatz auf ihrer Sitzung am 29. Oktober 2026 unverändert bei 2,50 % – keine Erhöhung auf 2,75 %. Trotz einer Eurozonen-Inflation von 3,8 % (nahezu doppelt so hoch wie das 2 %-Ziel) entschied sich der EZB-Rat einstimmig für eine Pause. Als ausschlaggebende Faktoren gelten ein Ausverkauf französischer Staatsanleihen, der die Finanzierungskosten in der Eurozone nach oben trieb, sowie die Bewertung der Energiepreisrisiken. Quellen: ECB-Pressemitteilung (ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp261029), CNBC ('European Central Bank keeps key interest rate on hold at 2.5%'), Bloomberg ('ECB Set to Hold Rates to Assess France and Energy Risks'), Euronews ('ECB holds rates at 2.5% as Lagarde announces early exit'), euribor-rates.info ('ECB interest rate decision 29/10/2026: unchanged, deposit 2.50%').
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