2026 Quebec Provincial Election (5 October 2026): Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) wins fewer than 10 seats in the National Assembly (confirmed by Élections Québec by 6 October 2026)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 30. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The once-ruling CAQ is experiencing a historic collapse. Current polls (Léger, Synopsis, Pallas, September 2026) show the party at only 16–18% of votes, far behind the PQ (~29–30%). The Qc125.com seat projection model (September 25) forecasts just 7 seats for the CAQ (down from 74 in 2022). Polymarket puts the probability of 5 or more CAQ seats at only 38% (as of approx. September 28, 2026) — implying a 62% chance of 4 or fewer seats. A total of fewer than 10 seats is by far the most probable outcome across the entire seat distribution. Polymarket gives the PQ 95% for overall victory. This prediction contradicts none of the open PQ forecasts.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket 'CAQ gewinnt 5+ Sitze': 38 % (Polymarket.com, ca. 28. September 2026)
- Qc125.com Sitzprognose 25. September 2026: CAQ 7 Sitze, PQ 62, PLQ 35, PCQ 14, QS 9
- Umfragen Léger/Synopsis/Pallas September 2026: CAQ 16–18 %, PQ 29–30 % (The Writ / Wikipedia Québec Election 2026, 30. September 2026)
- Polymarket Québec Wahlsieger: PQ 95 %, PLQ 3 %, CAQ 1,4 % (Stand 30. September 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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✦ AI
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