Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) beats the Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approx. $2.03 per share (earnings report 22 July 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 22. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
PM has beaten the EPS consensus in 8 consecutive quarters. The IQOS heated-tobacco system continues growing strongly in Eastern Europe and Asia with structural pricing power. Consensus adjusted EPS is approximately $2.03 per MarketBeat. No Polymarket anchor; own calibration from historical beat rate. Sector context: Goldman Sachs +45%, Morgan Stanley +23%, BofA +7% have already beaten Q2 2026 handily – the earnings season trend strongly favours consensus beats.
Data basis for this prediction
- Philip Morris Q2 2026 Earnings Date: 22. Juli 2026, EPS-Konsens ca. 2,03 USD (MarketBeat, Stand 16.07.2026)
- Q2 2026 Earnings Season: GS +44,99% EPS-Beat, MS +23,13%, BofA +7,08% (AlphaStreet/CNBC, Stand 16.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Philip Morris Q2-2026 bereinigtes EPS 2,20 USD, übertrifft Konsens von ca. 2,03 USD. Quelle: SEC 8-K, MarketScreener (22. Juli 2026).
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The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
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✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.