📈 Economy · Next Week

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July 2026 (released July 16) reads above 0 – second consecutive month of expansion

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 16. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

61%

The Philly Fed MBOS for July 2026 is released on July 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. June 2026 jumped to +10.3 after -0.4 in May – the largest single-month swing in recent memory. Series is highly volatile (±12–20 pts typical). Positives: Iran conflict de-escalation reduces energy fears (ZEW June: +10.5), improved orders component in June. Headwinds: Trump tariffs weigh on input costs. No Polymarket/Kalshi market. Given volatility, a single-month dip below zero is plausible (39% counter-probability).

Data basis for this prediction

Seeking Alpha, 17.06.2026: 'Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumps past consensus in June' – Wert +10,3
TradingEconomics: Philadelphia Fed Index Mai 2026: -0,4 (Monat zuvor)
Philadelphia Fed / Investing.com Kalender: nächste Veröffentlichung 16. Juli 2026
ZEW Pressemitteilung Juni 2026: Iran-Deeskalation hebt Industriesentiment (+20,7 Pkte auf +10,5)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

UK Retail Sales (ONS) for June 2026 (published July 24, 2026) show a month-on-month decline in volume terms (negative MoM reading)

The ONS publishes UK retail sales for June on July 24, 2026. May 2026: +1.2% MoM (+3.2% YoY) – a strong base. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey (June 26, 2026) showed the sharpest annual volume decline in over a year, weakest for the time of year since early 2024; July YoY balance at -45. No Polymarket/Kalshi market. Deloitte commentary notes potential World Cup uplift, but this likely only shows in July data. Inflation, weak June consumer confidence, and the high May base point to a negative MoM reading.

57%

Next Month · Predicted for 24. Jul 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approximately $2.85 per share on July 15, 2026

J&J reports Q2-2026 results on July 15, 2026 before market open. Analyst consensus (Benzinga, TipRanks): ~$2.85 adjusted EPS (vs. $2.77 prior year, +2.9% YoY). J&J has beaten EPS consensus in 20+ consecutive quarters. Benzinga analysis July 11, 2026: 'Likely To Report Higher Q2 Earnings.' No dedicated Polymarket/Kalshi market. Key drivers: pharma (Tremfya, Darzalex, Tecvayli), MedTech recovery. Revenue consensus: ~$25.02B. Historical beat rate >75% supports another upside.

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Jul 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) beats Q2-2026 adjusted EPS consensus of approximately $12.54 per share on July 15, 2026

BlackRock reports Q2-2026 results on July 15 before market open. Consensus: ~$12.54–12.63 adjusted EPS. Benzinga shows Earnings ESP of +1.21% – a classic upside signal. No dedicated Polymarket/Kalshi market. Drivers: AUM growth from S&P 500 rally above 7,700, revenue est. +24.5% YoY to ~$6.75B. Alternatives strengthened by HPS Investment Partners integration (Jan 2025). BLK historically beats consensus in 4 of 5 quarters.

73%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Jul 2026