📈 Economy · Next Week

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for July 2026 (released July 16) reads above 0 – second consecutive month of expansion

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 16. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

61%

The Philly Fed MBOS for July 2026 is released on July 16, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. June 2026 jumped to +10.3 after -0.4 in May – the largest single-month swing in recent memory. Series is highly volatile (±12–20 pts typical). Positives: Iran conflict de-escalation reduces energy fears (ZEW June: +10.5), improved orders component in June. Headwinds: Trump tariffs weigh on input costs. No Polymarket/Kalshi market. Given volatility, a single-month dip below zero is plausible (39% counter-probability).

Data basis for this prediction

Seeking Alpha, 17.06.2026: 'Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumps past consensus in June' – Wert +10,3
TradingEconomics: Philadelphia Fed Index Mai 2026: -0,4 (Monat zuvor)
Philadelphia Fed / Investing.com Kalender: nächste Veröffentlichung 16. Juli 2026
ZEW Pressemitteilung Juni 2026: Iran-Deeskalation hebt Industriesentiment (+20,7 Pkte auf +10,5)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Juli 2026: 41,4 (>0, Expansionszone, weit über Konsens von 13). Veröffentlicht am 3. Donnerstag = 16. Juli 2026. Quelle: tradingeconomics.com

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