📈 Economy · Next Month

UK Retail Sales (ONS) for June 2026 (published July 24, 2026) show a month-on-month decline in volume terms (negative MoM reading)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 12. July 2026 · Predicted for 24. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

57%

The ONS publishes UK retail sales for June on July 24, 2026. May 2026: +1.2% MoM (+3.2% YoY) – a strong base. The CBI Distributive Trades Survey (June 26, 2026) showed the sharpest annual volume decline in over a year, weakest for the time of year since early 2024; July YoY balance at -45. No Polymarket/Kalshi market. Deloitte commentary notes potential World Cup uplift, but this likely only shows in July data. Inflation, weak June consumer confidence, and the high May base point to a negative MoM reading.

Data basis for this prediction

CBI Distributive Trades Survey, 26.06.2026: schärfster Jahresrückgang der Retail-Volumina seit 2+ Jahren, YoY-Saldo -45
ONS Release Calendar: UK Retail Sales Juni 2026, Veröffentlichung 24. Juli 2026, 7:00 Uhr BST
ONS Retail Sales May 2026 Bulletin: +1,2 % MoM, +3,2 % YoY (veröff. 19.06.2026)
Deloitte UK: Kommentar ONS Retail Sales Juni 2026 – World-Cup-Effekt erwartet erst ab Juli

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] ONS-Daten UK Retail Sales Juni 2026 (veröffentlicht 24. Juli): +1,0 % MoM – positiv, kein Rückgang. Vorhersage eines negativen MoM-Werts ist widerlegt. Quelle: Arab News / Al-Aqsa English.

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